994
FXUS61 KOKX 020540
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
140 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will build east overnight and
across the area on Tuesday. The high will then give way to an
approaching frontal system late Wednesday into Thursday. The
frontal system will remain nearby for the start of the weekend,
likely moving just offshore Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions as a large area of high
pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. N-NE winds will
diminish to 10 mph or less.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s across the interior
and Pine Barrens region of Long Island, to the lower/mid 60s
along the coast. The warmest readings will be across the NYC
metro area. These temps are a few degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure both aloft and at the surface builds across on
Tuesday. Expect mostly sunny skies with subsidence and high
temperatures right around normal for this time of year.
Most locations will top out in the lower/mid 80s, warmest across
the interior and NYC metro. Expect late morning/afternoon
sea breeze development due to a weak flow, with the synoptic
flow becoming light S-SE less than 10 mph.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, not much change with the
exception of a strengthening southerly flow on Wednesday as
the high builds to the east. Humidity levels will also come up
some, but forecast remains dry with ridging aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes were made and closely followed the NBM.
The main adjustments had to do with PoP over the weekend to
better account for likely frontal boundary position toward the
weekend.

Main Points:

* The humidity climbs late in the week and remain elevated into
  the weekend.

* The pattern shifts to a more unsettled regime as a frontal
  boundary stalls just to the west, and lingers nearby for a
  good portion of the weekend.

A quasi-zonal pattern that will be in place to begin the period
quickly evolves to a developing long wave trough into the
Northern Plains and Midwest which is progged by the global model
consensus to gradually lift northeast and deamplify. This will
lead to a SW flow aloft and a prevailing S to SW flow at the sfc
throughout the period. A warm front is expected to lift north
of the area Wednesday night and this will lead to a warmer and
more humid air mass to take hold into the 4th of July holiday.
There remains some question as to how far east the influence of
an approaching frontal boundary can get to the region later on
the 4th. For now have chance to slgt chance shwr/tstm for the
holiday for later in the day and evening.

For the remainder of the period the main question is how much
does the frontal boundary stall Friday into Saturday, and then
does the frontal system progress east late in the weekend and
early next week. The front may very well linger nearby keeping
things somewhat unsettled from time to time, especially for the
afternoon and evening hours with more daytime heating for shower
and tstm activity. PW should continue to creep up Thursday
through the weekend as the region will be between high pressure
in the W Atlantic and a mean trough to our W-NW. This should
result keeping humidity and the chance of at least diurnally
driven shower activity in place. Temperatures are expected to
average a few degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds in. Most terminals should have N-NE
flow less than 10 kt. A couple of sites have briefly increased
close to 10 kt but do not expect this to continue overnight.

Wind should shift SE-S less than 10 kt along the coast and at
the NYC metros by afternoon. KLGA likely to hang onto an ENE
breeze off Long Island Sound until about 20Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. SE winds G20kt late.

Thursday: VFR for much of the day, then MVFR or lower cond
possible with any late day or nighttime showers/tstms.

Friday and Saturday: MVFR or lower cond possible at times with
chance of showers/tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds across through Tuesday with sub-SCA
conditions. S flow strengthens a bit on Wednesday with the high
departing to the E and a weak frontal system approaching from
the W. Gusts 15-20 kt will be possible in the NY bight, but
lower elsewhere.

Sub advisory conditions will remain in place from Wednesday
night through Saturday for all waters. There will likely be
bouts of marginal SCA cond at times, especially for portions of
the ocean waters, as a southerly flow increases with high
pressure offshore and a frontal boundary likely being to
the west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal boundary and pre-frontal trough are likely to approach
late Thursday into Friday, and possibly linger into the weekend.
At this time it remains too early to determine the risk of any
hydrological impacts as the position of these features remain
in question.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a low rip current risk on Tuesday. There will be a
moderate risk developing for the NYC and Nassau ocean beaches on
Wednesday, with a low risk likely continuing for the Suffolk
ocean beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/JP/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...