Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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782 FXUS63 KPAH 191913 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 213 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures and moderately humid conditions will continue through Monday. - A couple of weak disturbances will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday morning to southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois and again Friday evening along the Interstate 64 corridor. - The passage of a slow-moving cold front will bring a better chance of widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. - Cooler conditions will follow the cold front`s passage for the middle part of next week, though small rain chances will persist. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Tonight through Saturday night...The region remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the Mid and Deep South. As the high translates east of the region, weak southwesterly surface flow is advecting a more humid airmass into the region. This will bring a distinctly summertime feel to our weather pattern through the weekend. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the humidity, heat index values will climb into the lower to middle 90s as well. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 60s over most of the area. There are a couple periods with small rain chances that have been added to the forecast for Friday. The first chance of rain looks to be Friday morning across southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri. This will be the decaying remnants of a thunderstorms complex that will form overnight across MO/IA/MN and dive southward towards our region. The second chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday evening along the Interstate 64 corridor as another complex of scattered showers and thunderstorms passes mainly north of the region. However, the great majority of the area will be dry Friday, and even those that do receive rain will not experience a washout by any means. Sunday through Monday night... A better chance of more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will return to the forecast beginning Sunday and continue through Monday night. This activity will be in conjunction with a cold front that will slowly pass through the region during this time. There looks to be a daily chance of convection, but not everyone will see rain each day. Overall, most areas look to see roughly 0.25-0.50" during this period, with locally higher maxima possible under heavier thunderstorm activity. The added clouds and rain coverage will keep temperatures slightly cooler, with forecast high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. Tuesday through Wednesday...The cold front will slowly exit the region by Tuesday, bringing cooler and gradually drier conditions in its wake. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday look to reach the middle to upper 70s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Persistent H5 troughing aloft will result in a lingering chance of light rain showers and as well as enhanced cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For the 18z TAFs, winds this afternoon will be light from the SW under generally FEW-SCT diurnal CU with bases around 7kft. Winds tonight will go calm, with shallow but periodically dense fog again expected at CGI, mainly between 8-12z. Any fog will rapidly dissipate by 13z, with winds again picking up from the SW AOA 5 kft. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS