Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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071 FXUS63 KPAH 260814 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Higher uncertainty in the forecast for today with storms possible. Some may be strong to severe with damaging wind the main threat. - Brief respite from the heat today and Thursday. - Hot again Saturday with heat indices around 105. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 There is higher uncertainty in the forecast today as a shortwave trof moves through aloft. CAMS are not really in agreement and aren`t doing the best job with the convection that is currently ongoing across the area. The HRRR looks to be the best initialized so far and so have leaned towards that for the forecast PoPs today. There might be a bit of a lull this morning then convection picks back up this afternoon. This lull could be disrupted though by some ongoing convection across northwest MO that might make it to SEMO this morning (if it holds together). Storms today will be pulsey in nature due to weak shear but strong instability. Damaging wind would be the main threat for stronger to severe storms. Enjoy the cooler temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s today as a front moves through in the afternoon/evening. Thursday will continue to feel better as we get a brief break from the heat and humidity with drier conditions and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Friday the heat starts coming back as temperatures climb back up into the lower 90s. Saturday will be another hot and humid day with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices around 105. This may be mitigated some though by convection which starts off Saturday morning and picks up through the day. A front is progged to move through Saturday night into Sunday. Storm chances sag south on Sunday and we get another brief respite from the heat with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Heat comes back by Tuesday however with highs back in the mid 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 SHRA/TSRA will continue to be the main impacts to the terminals overnight and on Wednesday. Confidence in timing is still low. CGI/PAH will likely see storms over the next couple of hours before a short pause. Additional activity is expected on Wednesday. Late in the period should see drier conditions with rain/storms exiting the area. Predominant VFR forecast through Wednesday night. Winds will increase from the southwest Wednesday and will veer toward the northwest late in the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY AVIATION...AD