785
FXUS63 KPAH 230437
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1137 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are ongoing just south of the area and could move north
  into the area in the coming hours. Some may be strong to
  severe.

- Storm chances exist each day through the weekend. Some may be
  strong to severe.

- Sunday is still the next thing to watch closely. SPC has us outlooked
  at 30% (Enhanced, level 3 of 5) for severe chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Storms are already blowing up to the south of the area this
afternoon and may evolve into an MCS that should stay south of our
area. Individual cells though may move north into the KY/TN border
counties. Aloft a shortwave is moving through the upper Midwest with
a sfc low north of MN and an attendant cold front draped through the
Midwest and on our door step just to the west and northwest. A
second round of storms may potentially form along the front
this evening and move through the area overnight. Right now the
RAP and the NAM seem to have the best handle on what is going on
with the current convection and both models suggest some slight
redevelopment along the front this evening and overnight but
nothing major. Our severe potential is there though with about
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 45-50 kts of 0-6 km shear, and mid
level lapse rates around 6.5 to 7 degC/km. The main severe
threats would be hail and damaging winds with supercells being
the primary mode.

Tomorrow through the weekend multiple small shortwaves are expected
to bring storm chances each day. The aforementioned front will stall
over the area during this time and could act as a focus for storm
development. Some of these storms may be marginally strong to severe
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. A lot will
depend on daytime heating leading to greater instability.

Sunday is still very much a day to watch closely as a more broad
double barrel trof moves over the Rockies and central Plains. There
is a little discrepancy between the EC and the GFS however as the EC
has the sfc low over the MO/KS/IA/NE region vs the GFS which has the
sfc low centered more over KS. Both models though have the waves
taking a similar track towards the upper Midwest with a front to the
south. Sunday afternoon dewpoints look to get into the 70s in both
models. The GFS has stronger MUCAPE at around 3,500 J/kg vs the EC
at about 2,500 J/kg (likely owing to earlier onset of convection).
Both models support 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear and mid level lapse
rates around 8.5 degC/km. Once the front moves into the area it
could serve as a focus for convective development Sunday afternoon.
Another element that is concerning is the CSU Machine Learning
Program has us pegged at 60% for severe chances, this is the same as
it was on May 8th (and the CSU MLP has been performing well lately).
That being said, it`s not surprising that SPC has us outlooked at
30% (Enhanced, level 3 of 5) for Sunday.

Monday the front comes through (which could be drier than what the
NBM currently has). Aloft a double barrel low circulates over the
Great Lakes region and swings the western low down through the upper
Midwest on Tuesday evening. This could bring a few weak storm
chances to the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Only major adjustment since the 00z TAF issuance is to increase
coverage and intensity of IFR/MVFR low stratus near PAH/OWB/EVV.
These clouds will mix out gradually as showers and isolated
thunderstorm move into the area from the west in the 09-13z
window. This activity will wind down in the late morning to
early afternoon with lingering MVFR bases rising back to VFR by
mid to late afternoon and continuing through the evening.

Light and variable winds overnight will become S to SW at 5-10
kts after daybreak and persist through the great majority of the
forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DWS