748
FXUS65 KPIH 220829
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
229 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...
A prolonged period of quiet weather is expected for much of the
week across eastern Idaho. We`ll see the upper level pattern
change a bit throughout the week ahead but as far as sensible
weather is concerned, overall differences from day to day will be
rather minimal. The area remains in a region of limited upper
level flow so today will be nearly a carbon copy of the weather we
saw yesterday, maybe a degree or two warmer. A weak shortwave
will move well to our north on Monday across northern Montana but
the feature won`t have much of an impact aside from maybe nudging
winds up a few MPHs. All models are now void of any precip
potential anywhere as this feature sweeps well to our north. High
pressure will quickly shift over the area as the low moves east
and this will allow temperatures to begin to warm up Tuesday and
into Wednesday with the latter looking like the warmest day. Lower
valleys may see temps return to the low to mid 80s.

Thursday and beyond, the high will have moved east of the region
and our area looks to be on the far southern edge of a jet that
will send a series of systems to the north of the area. This
should allow temps to drop a few degrees from their Wednesday peak
and bring them a bit closer to normal for late week and into the
weekend. Could see a slight uptick in the synoptic winds as well
during this period but nothing overly impactful. Things will
likely remain dry though into the weekend as any significant
moisture will remain away from the area. Much model uncertainty
comes into play after the weekend with the GFS and ECMWF having
striking differences on the pattern, the latter of which would
bring some winter weather to parts of the forecast area. Not
anything to get excited about being so far out in time but just
something worth mentioning for now. We`ll see how things trend
over the days ahead as there is a lot of time to watch this.
McKaughan


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period with light winds and
mostly clear skies. Only CIGs expected today will be some
occasional high clouds streaking across the region but will not
be impactful. McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Clear skies and weak westerly flow means a slight
warming up and drying out over yesterday. An upper level trough will
bring higher humidity, some clouds, cooler temperatures, and some
breezy wind on Mon. The trough approaches from the north, so wind
direction will likely be more west and northwest compared to the
usual south to southwest.

An upper level blocking high pattern will slide over the Great
Basin, allowing temperatures by mid-week to be summer-like even
though today is the equinox. This upper level ridge does break down
slightly on Thu as a trough passes through southern Canada, but the
precipitation does not develop this far south. The most expected is
a fairly strong wind and cooler temperatures (but still much warmer
than normal, which would be around 70 deg F in the Snake River
plain).

Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$