Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
385 FXUS65 KPIH 281943 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper low centered across northeastern MT today while closer to home, we have some fast moving cirrus clouds streaking across the region. That`s really the only thing of significance today as things remain tranquil across the region. High pressure continues to build over the area and temperatures are running slightly below average today. Things will remain pleasant overnight with another evening in the 40s and 50s across the region. The heat returns with avengeance tomorrow as the upper ridge really amplifies overnight and into the day Saturday. Expecting daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower valleys tomorrow. Skies again will be mostly clear with no precipitation expected. Overnight lows into Sunday AM will be much milder with the warmer airmass, generally in the 50s and 60s outside of mountain locations. McKaughan .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. Our transient ridge of high pressure will be moving out of the area on Sunday as a Pacific trough begins to make its way onshore and towards us. We will remain in southwest flow aloft on Sunday, but increasing cloud cover will help "cool" us by a few degrees with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s for most, though lingering in the low 90s where a bit more sunshine is expected in parts of the Southern Hills and southeastern Highlands. As this system arrives, there will be the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday, though PoPs on Sunday will be around 20 to 30 percent in parts of the Central Mountains, Snake Plain, and Eastern Highlands. The better potential for showers and storms on Monday will shift a bit northward, with a 20 to 30 percent chance in the Upper Snake Plain, Eastern Highlands, and Central Mountains. However, a 50 to 70 percent chance will exist up in Clark and Fremont counties. Wind gusts will also increase again Sunday and Monday with gusts around 30 to 40 mph throughout the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain on both Sunday and Monday. Outside of these areas, gusts will be a bit lighter, but still around 20 to 30 mph. Once this trough is out of here, we will gradually warm up through the 80s through the rest of the week with generally breezy conditions each afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. We will be keeping an eye on the following weekend as models show a dome of high pressure building over the West Coast with deterministic ECMWF and GFS models bringing in triple digit highs by Sunday while their ensemble counterparts remain in the 90s. AMM && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through the period with mostly clear skies and no precipitation expected. Winds will remain a touch breezy this afternoon but generally in the 15-20 kt range at the highest. Once the sun goes down, winds will slowly taper off and should be light overnight and into the day Saturday. Winds generally 10 knots or less throughout the day tomorrow with prolonged VFR conditions likely to continue. McKaughan && .FIRE WEATHER... We remain in northwest flow aloft today before a transient ridge of high pressure moves through eastern Idaho on Saturday. Overall, this lends itself to relatively quiet, but still hot and dry weather. Highs will jump from near 80 today to the upper 80s to mid 90s by Saturday afternoon. Across the area, min RHs will range from mid teens to mid 20s today and tomorrow. There will be some minor improvements to min RHs on Sunday and Monday as our next system swings through the area. In this case, min RHs will increase into the 20s to low 30s for most on Sunday, but remain in the teens for parts of the southeastern Highlands and Arco Desert/Mud Lake area. The upper teens to mid 20s continue for most on Monday with higher min RHs closer to 30 to 40 percent up in the Island Park area where there will be a 40 to 60 percent chance for showers and storms. Winds will increase with this system, too, with gusts around 30 to 40 mph throughout the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain on both Sunday and Monday. Outside of these areas, gusts will be a bit lighter, but still around 20 to 30 mph. After this weekend system, it will be warm and breezy through the week ahead. AMM && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$