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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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515 FXUS62 KRAH 281844 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 243 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast tonight. A hotter and more humid airmass will become established across the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday bringing the next chance of storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 243 PM Friday... High pressure to the north centered just of the New England coast is resulting in good onshore flow from the west this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary remains to the south and expected to wobble north this afternoon and overnight. As such a few isolated showers and storms developing along the coast could impact the Sandhills region later this afternoon. Later overnight as the warm front lifts to the north there is a chance that storms could develop across the region, with the best chance over the western Piedmont. Low stratus could develop early morning across the region with pockets of fog producing lower visibilities in some areas. Easterly flow this afternoon will shift overnight to a more south-southwesterly flow by Saturday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 80s NW to low/mid 90s elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday... Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday night with little to no showers expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 AM Friday... A cold front over the Ohio River valley will move southeast across North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. In advance of the front, the hot weather will continue along with model guidance suggesting dewpoints will be in the mid 70s, which will result in very humid conditions. The highest heat index values are expected to be in eastern counties, where a heat advisory will likely be necessary. As the front comes through, the very moist air should result in high instability for thunderstorms, although minimal wind through the vertical profile should limit severe thunderstorm potential. While NBM guidance is going with 80-90 pops in some locations, especially across the southeast Sunday night, will be conservative and stick with 70 pops considering models seem to be a bit optimistic recently with precipitation coverage. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes behind the frontal passage, although scattered showers/thunderstorms remain in the forecast across southern counties Monday before the forecast completely dries out for Tuesday. The high will weaken as it passes across the mid-Atlantic states and over the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday night, then another cold front could move from the Ohio River valley into the region late Thursday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be relatively mild - in the 80s - with a northerly component to the wind, but as soon as the high moves offshore, the flow will veer back to the south and the heat will return. Expect mid 90s for highs on Wednesday and upper 90s Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... VFR conditions currently across the region with some mid and high clouds moving over the region. Later this afternoon some isolated showers or storms could develop around KFAY reducing visbys/ceilings at times with stronger storms. Up slope flow in the NW Piedmont could also generate some storms but not until later this evening. There is a good chance of low stratus and/or fog at all sites early morning. MVFR or even IFR conditions are possible by 06z at KINT, KGSO, and KRWI. As the low stratus develops and spreads south, KRDU and KFAY could see MVFR or IFR conditions by 08/09z. By 15/16z Saturday morning all sites are expected to return to MVFR. Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sun morning with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon- evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...CA CLIMATE...RAH