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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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341 FXUS62 KRAH 272348 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 746 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front across the eastern Carolinas will drift southeast tonight and linger through early Friday, before lifting north as a warm front. A hotter and more humid airmass will become established across the area this weekend before a cold front approaches the area on Sunday and moves into the Carolinas on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 230 PM Thursday... As the cold from moves to the south east this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develops along the far southeastern portion of the CWA. Behind the front a few lingering light showers continue to slowly move across the region. All shower activity should exit the area by this evening with dry conditions expected overnight into early Friday morning. Although the front is expected to push through a few low stratus clouds could develop early Friday morning reducing visibilities. Areas most favored for these conditions will be the Sandhills and Coastal Plain regions with some areas as far NW as the Triangle. Temperatures will continue to cool down this evening with overnight lows in the low 70s with cooler spots in the upper 60s. Winds will be light and variable overnight, but by morning have a general E/NE flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Thursday... High pressure across New England on Friday morning will shift offshore on Wednesday allowing the lingering cold front across the eastern Carolinas to lift north as a warm front on Friday. A light northeast low level flow on Friday morning will veer to southeasterly during the afternoon and continue into the overnight. Surface dew points will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s to start the day, they may mix out a bit toward midday but with the southeasterly flow they will jump into the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon and overnight. With the southeast flow expect a decent amount of cloudiness and the potential for some widely scattered convection during the afternoon and into the overnight with the convection favored in an arc across the south and west. Highs will be complicated by the amount of cloudiness but should range in the upper 80s near the VA border and Triad and the lower 90s in most other locations. Maximum heat index values will range in the 90s to around 100. Lows Friday night will be warm and muggy with the clouds and southeast flow with lows of 70-75. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM Thursday... This above-normal temp stretch will hit yet another crescendo this weekend, with convection chances peaking Sun/Sun night. A brief temp respite arrives early next week, however this will quickly give way to a return to excessive heat midweek. Sat-Sun night: Well above normal temps and high dewpoints return Sat, as low level thermal ridging and and warm/stable mid levels spread in from the W and WSW. A potent northern stream shortwave trough swings through the upper midwest and N Great Lakes Sat but the main band of westerlies holds N of NC, leaving us within a regime of light steering flow. Weak surface troughing will be in place through the Piedmont, but a loose low level height field yielding weak low level flow will limit any low level mass convergence. As such, any storms Sat are apt to be weakly forced and more pulse-type, focusing on subtle boundaries and the sea breeze. PW will be rebounding Sat, with model projections of values surging over 2" through the NC Piedmont, so expect scattered late-day coverage despite the lack of a focus or strong mechanism to force ascent. Thicknesses and surface dewpoints will rebound as well, supporting highs Sat in the low-mid 90s and heat index values of 100- 105 in all but NW sections. By Sun/Sun night, the mid level trough will dig positively and somewhat strongly over extreme SE Canada and the St Lawrence Valley into the Northeast, with a corresponding strengthening in cyclonic mid level flow over our area as the attendant surface cold front approaches late in the day. Low level thicknesses rise to 10-15 m above normal ahead of the front with surface dewpoints also likely to be quite high, well into the 70s with only modest afternoon increases given low level moisture influx ahead of the front. Sun is likely to be another day of dangerous heat, with highs mostly in the mid 90s and heat indices again around 100-105 over most of the area. Sun should have the highest rain chances, as most deterministic models show PW rising to highly anomalous values around 2.5" along with moderate SBCAPE and decent (but still less than ideal) deep layer bulk shear. Will continue with a period of likely pops Sun afternoon and evening, extending into the overnight in the S. Mon-Thu: The front will settle to our S for Mon/Tue with high pressure nosing in from the N, resulting in mostly dry weather (except for pops in the S Mon, a nod to a possible slower frontal progression). The mid level trough extending down through the Mid Atlantic early Mon will shift offshore by Tue as ridging aloft builds anew from the S Plains/Lower Miss Valley, so expect the mostly dry weather to persist through mid week at least. As the surface ridge pushes out over the open NW Atlantic by Wed, the oppressive heat will return. After near normal highs and gloriously low dewpoints in the 60s Mon/Tue, we should see highs in the mid- upper 90s return for Wed and July 4th, with very low chances for showers and storms. -GIH && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 745 PM Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to continue for much of the 24 hour TAF period as a weak cold front continues to progress to our south. However, some guidance does indicate the potential for both fleeting MVFR vsbys and ceilings possibly at KFAY and KRWI near sunrise Friday. KRDU may also see a brief sub-VFR fog near sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF. Any lingering fog/stratus should lift by mid to late morning. A few isolated afternoon showers/storms may develop along an inland penetrating sea breeze which could near KFAY. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions with light nely sfc flow that turns more esely in the afternoon. Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area-wide Sat-Sun mornings, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 27: KFAY: 102/1998 June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998 June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Luchetti/CA CLIMATE...RAH