872
FXUS62 KRAH 290701
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and more humid air mass will become established across the
area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday
bringing a chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

High heat and humidity return.

The heat and humidity return this afternoon and tonight. High
pressure continues to exit the New England coast this morning with a
SE return flow across our region. The flow will become more S-SW
today and the higher temperatures and humidities will come back
quickly. To go along with the high heat and humidity, there will be
little chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. There is
a small (slight chance) in the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain, and
over the far western Piedmont (closer to the seabreeze, differential
heating, and pre-frontal trough) for possible triggers. Otherwise,
it will be dry.

Highs this afternoon will surge into the 90s in all areas. Dew
points are forecast to rise into the 70s before mixing out a bit by
mid afternoon. It appears that the heat indices will likely range
between 100 and 105. We are still contemplating a heat advisory,
especially for the urban areas around Wake, Durham, and Cumberland
counties where lows tonight will struggle to fall below 80. When the
nighttime temperatures stay up in the 80s much of the night, the
chances of heat illnesses rise. Lows in the rural areas should be in
the mid to upper 70s. A decision of the heat advisory will be made
by 400 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

Hot and humid, but a good chance of thunderstorms to bring cooling
relief.

High heat and humidity will be the rule of the day at least until
scattered thunderstorms begin to develop in the early to mid
afternoon. Heat indices may very well be higher Sunday than today if
the clouds/storms hold off until mid to late day (which appears the
case for the eastern areas). Temperatures will get an early start
given the lows expected to be near 80 at many locations. Actual
highs in the lower to mid 90s are expected, with heat indices
possibly 105-109 from Raleigh and Durham south and east through the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Heat indices may top out near 100 in
the normally cooler NW Piedmont region before the chance of storms.

Given the high heat and humidity, instability MLCapes 2000-2500 J/kg
should result increasing the chance of strong to locally severe
storms. However, the stronger flow aloft is generally limited this
far south and southwest. SPC has placed at least the NE quad of our
region in a slight risk, with a marginal risk over the rest of
central NC. The primary threat will be local damaging wind.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the evening, especially from
the Triangle Area south and east. Hopefully, this will bring some
cooling rain for areas that have had little rainfall in the past
month. It will be cooler Sunday night after the front and hopefully
rain pass the region. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...

Aloft, a trough will progress eastward through the Northeast and mid-
Atlantic Mon/Mon night, while the mid-level anticyclone sits over
the ARKLATEX. As the trough moves away from the East Coast, the high
will once again build into the region from the west, sitting over
the TN Valley/Deep South Tue and Wed. A series of northern stream
s/w disturbances will track eastward through the northern CONUS Tue
through Fri, with each successive s/w slowly suppressing the high
southward. However, the high should generally remain over the
Southeast US through Fri. At the surface, the cold front should be
through NC Mon morning, with high pressure ridging into the area in
its wake from a high moving eastward through the Great Lakes. As the
high continues eastward through the Northeast and offshore Tue/Tue
night, it will continue ridging southward into central NC. Once the
high moves out over the Atlantic, a lee trough will develop, with
swly flow and the advection of warm, moist air into the area taking
over once again. Temperatures may actually be near to slightly below
normal Mon and Tue, but once the warm advection commences on Wed,
they will quickly rise back above normal Wed and remain above to
well above normal through the end of the week. As for rainfall,
aside from some possible lingering showers/storms in the east on
Mon, the next best chance for appreciable rainfall looks to be Fri
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 132 AM Saturday...

IFR stratus is likely to develop at all terminals late tonight/early
Saturday morning.

Any lingering stratus should lift to VFR by late morning/early
afternoon. After which, a few isolated showers/storms could impact
KINT/KGSO this afternoon. However, coverage looks limited and mostly
confined to the mountains.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sunday
morning with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly
afternoon-evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected
early to mid week next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012

July 4:
KGSO: 98/1970
KRDU: 101/2012
KFAY: 98/2019


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

July 4:
KGSO: 73/2018
KRDU: 79/1902
KFAY: 78/1913

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH