Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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152 FXUS65 KRIW 191725 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1125 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and quiet weather Thursday with a warming trend through Saturday. - Cold front into Sunday with cooler temperatures and limited precipitation chances through Monday. - Warming trend and dry weather expected beyond well into the long term forecast with warmer and dryer than average conditions probable. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 IR currently depicted the main upper level low pushing northeast across northeastern MT and northwestern ND into Canada with lingering lower stratus across western Valleys and to the north. Radar shows just a few lingering rain showers across the northeast portions of the CWA that continue to dissipate and push east. Induced ridging will give way to more tranquil weather conditions behind this system with mainly clear skies and relatively light winds for Thursday. However, some lingering low stratus expected for western valleys, especially Jackson Hole that will eventually burn off with daytime heating by late morning. In the meantime, an upper level low cut off across southern California will continue to slowly push east staying well to the south. This will allow for a warming trend through Saturday back to above average for most locations, especially east of the Divide. As this system moves a bit north of east, it becomes an open and more progressive wave late Saturday giving way to some limited precipitation chances across some of the CWA. Currently, models depict more of the souther half of the CWA with the best chances with much more limited coverage further north. What can be had, is a weak cold front early Sunday morning that will push temperatures back to just below average to more seasonable for this time of year Sunday and Monday reinforced by another weak wave early next week. Beyond Monday, expected ridging to build back into the Rockies that will see another warming and dry trend through the remainder of next week into the following weekend. CPC data depicts a warmer and dryer than average extended outlook for the remainder of the month and even into early October not helping in the drought department going forward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1125 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Low clouds in and around KJAC have been on the decrease since 16Z/Thursday, and this trend continues and leaves VFR by 18Z/Thursday. All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period. Southwest 12-22kt surface winds continue until sunset at KCPR and into the afternoon at KCOD before slowing. These same terminals along with KJAC see west to southwest surface winds increase between 15Z-18Z/Friday. Occasional mountain top obscurations until 02Z/Friday over the northwest quadrant of Wyoming. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...CNJ