944
FXUS65 KRIW 021027
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
427 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday,
  mainly the northern half of the CWA.

- Warmer and dryer the remainder of the week and weekend with
  increasing fire weather risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

IR currently depicts the main shortwave pushing across the
northern Rockies filling with warmer cloud tops as it loses its
diffluence aloft up the longwave pattern towards the upper
Great Plains. Radar still shows some light rain showers ongoing
for the northern Bighorns and eastern counties that will
continue its eastward progression through the morning hours.
Otherwise, the backside of the low with a weaker mid level
support trough with spark more isolated storms (30-40%
coverage) Tuesday afternoon across the northern half of the
CWA. Short term models are in fair agreement of redevelopment by
1-2PM from Yellowstone to the northern Bighorn Basin pushing
east through the afternoon and early evening. These will
diminish towards sunset once the atmosphere losing daytime
heating and the instability. As such, severe weather is not
expected outside of some gustier outflows through the basin and
towards the I-25 corridor of Johnson County.

Otherwise, expect the cooler than average temperatures to
continue for Tuesday until the longwave trough pushes east and
the main finger of the PFJ retreats back to the north. A strong
upper level high will being to build from the desert Southwest
with increasing convergence aloft toward the end of the week and
especially over the weekend. Wednesday will see the highest
winds as the gradient as a weaker front pushes through with
another shortwave. Isolated higher elevation activity is
expected with more of a limited coverage due to lack of low
level moisture, and as such, lower humidity values are expected
into the longer term forecast as well.

Beyond Wednesday, some isolated chances for higher terrain
onward into the weekend with mainly dry conditions and a warming
trend expected for the entire CWA. 90s back into the fold east
of the Divide and 80s to the west as the aforementioned high
center to the southwest continues to build and extend through
the upper Rockies. No other significant weather is forecasted at
this time into the longer term outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A shortwave taking shape will track east-southeast through the
state until around 15Z/Tuesday. An area of showers and a
thunderstorm or two will accompany the wave and primarily impact
KWRL and then KCPR as it traverses the region. Conditions
remain VFR at all terminals despite this convection. Cloud cover
decreases from west-to-east late tonight through Tuesday
morning. A few weak showers develop over the far north Tuesday
afternoon, but it appears isolated and nature and have no
terminal impacts in this forecast. West to northwest surface
wind increases at the southwest terminals between
16Z-19Z/Tuesday, but it takes a bit longer to mix at KCPR and
KRIW. Winds and cloud cover decrease at sunset Tuesday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Hattings