Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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Spot Forecast for Nugent Rx - Hams Fork Unit 2...USFS BTF West Zone Fuels
National Weather Service Riverton WY
535 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on June 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and dry conditions are expected today with wind remaining
lighter. Precipitation chances increase tonight, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday. The chance of
a wetting rain is generally low, but will depend greatly on
whether a cell directly impacts the unit. Otherwise, Friday will
see a breezier wind, especially around any storms in the area.
Warm temperatures and afternoon shower chances will continue
through the weekend.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (45-55 percent). Isolated showers
                    in the morning, then scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2 until 1500, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near any showers or storms.
Ridgetop wind.......West 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL increasing to 7000 ft AGL by 1500.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6200 knot-ft) increasing to very
good by 1500.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80  48  56  63  55  46  38  40  41
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3
Temp............61  63  65  66  68  69  70  70  69
RH..............51  46  43  40  38  36  34  34  34
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   11  10  11  11  11  12
20 FT wind gust.7   10  10  16  14  16  16  16  17
Ridge wind dir..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..10  15  15  20  15  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 2.0 3.1 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.0 6.1 5.1
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  13  14  18  17  18  18  18  20
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10006   22  37  66  76  97  113 97  87

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around
                    16 mph becoming light downslope/downvalley
after 2100.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northeast by 0200.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL decreasing to near 0 ft AGL after
2100.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (58100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor after 2100.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........43  43  42  42  44  46  48  47  46  45  44  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............69  67  64  62  60  58  57  55  54  53  52  51
RH..............34  38  42  45  48  51  54  57  59  61  64  67
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.16  14  12  10  10  8   7   6   6   6   6   6
Ridge wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  14  13  12  12  10  10  10  9   9   9   9
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100058  33  15  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2 until 1500, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 10 mph after
0900 with gusts to 17 mph in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near any
showers or thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Generally prevailing west 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL increasing to 8900 ft AGL by 1500.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the west 10
                    to 18 mph after 0900.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) increasing to very good
(107600 knot-ft) by 1300.
Haines Index........3 to 4.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  38  33  28  25  23  20  20  19  19  22  25
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   1   1   1
Temp............51  54  57  61  64  66  68  70  71  71  71  71
RH..............67  64  58  52  46  40  35  31  29  28  27  27
20 FT wind dir..NE  N   W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   7   8   10  11  12  14  14  16  17  17  17
Ridge wind dir..NE  N   W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.9 8.4 8.0
Transp wind dir.N   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   10  12  13  15  16  17  18  18  17
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10000   4   8   13  33  57  92  108 124 142 135 120

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds around
6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs around 70. Northwest winds around 7 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northwest winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Myers
Requested by...Michael McEwen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415678.0/RIW
.DELDT 06/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.mcewen@usda.gov