Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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488 FXUS61 KRLX 271246 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 846 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Near seasonable temperatures expected today in the wake of a cold front. Another cold front crosses this weekend, with additional storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 AM Thursday... No updates necessary. As of 555 AM Thursday... Updated some temperatures and the cloud cover forecast. Visible satellite is showing aggressive clearing over southeast Ohio, giving way to some dense fog across most of the valleys. As of 240 AM Thursday... Cold front which has been crossing this past evening has nearly exited the forecast area, taking showers and thunderstorms with it; some lingering drizzle or light showers will remain across the mountains through the morning though. Low clouds and patchy fog expected in the wake of the front with remnant low-level moisture and light to calm winds expected. Visibilities and ceilings will be lower across the mountains and western foothills, including the sheltered low lying river valleys across the lowlands. This morning`s lows will struggle to drop with cloud cover and trapped moisture. Expecting most locations to remain in the 60s to around 70, with higher elevations potentially dropping into the upper 50s. The morning starts off with remnant clouds and fog, but will dissipate after daybreak. Skies will clear by afternoon with the passage of a secondary, drier cold front that will move through. This reinforcing front will allow for drier weather, north-northeast flow and more seasonable temperatures. Highs this afternoon will rise into the 80s across the lowlands, with 70s and lower 80s expected in the mountains. Cooler, slightly below normal lows are expected tonight into Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Thursday... With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday, southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are also once again possible, with a bit better chances in Virginia, although most of the region will remain dry. An upper level short wave will then provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide Friday night. A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms even more for Saturday into Sunday. Models have a cold front pushing through late Saturday night into Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 AM Thursday... A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front on Monday. Models still have some disagreement on the amount of cooler air for Monday, but temperatures should be either near normal or below normal for this time of year. The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather should prevail on Tuesday, but the southerly wind flow and another approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 AM Thursday... Seeing a mix of low stratus and dense fog across the forecast area this morning. Low clouds are being reported at most sites, but the heaviest restrictions are at the mountains sites and across the northern lowlands where CIGs are IFR/LIFR. Stark clearing is taking place across SE Ohio, Kentucky and the western lowlands of WV. Visible satellite is showing dense fog along the sheltered valleys and rivers across the these areas, so IFR/LIFR VIS restrictions from fog are possible at HTS and PKB for the next hour as this cloud deck continues to erode away. VFR will resume for most locations outside of the mountains by ~13-14Z. VFR will likely resume at the mountain locations by ~18Z this afternoon. Winds are calm to light and from the north early this morning. Light northerly to northeasterly flow will pick up by afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low stratus and fog diminishing may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC NEAR TERM...SL/LTC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...LTC