508
FXUS61 KRLX 271043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
643 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Near seasonable temperatures expected today in the wake of a
cold front. Another cold front crosses this weekend, with
additional storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 555 AM Thursday...

Updated some temperatures and the cloud cover forecast. Visible
satellite is showing aggressive clearing over southeast Ohio,
giving way to some dense fog across most of the valleys.

As of 240 AM Thursday...

Cold front which has been crossing this past evening has nearly
exited the forecast area, taking showers and thunderstorms with
it; some lingering drizzle or light showers will remain across
the mountains through the morning though.

Low clouds and patchy fog expected in the wake of the front with
remnant low-level moisture and light to calm winds expected.
Visibilities and ceilings will be lower across the mountains and
western foothills, including the sheltered low lying river
valleys across the lowlands. This morning`s lows will struggle
to drop with cloud cover and trapped moisture. Expecting most
locations to remain in the 60s to around 70, with higher
elevations potentially dropping into the upper 50s.

The morning starts off with remnant clouds and fog, but will
dissipate after daybreak. Skies will clear by afternoon with
the passage of a secondary, drier cold front that will move
through. This reinforcing front will allow for drier weather,
north-northeast flow and more seasonable temperatures. Highs
this afternoon will rise into the 80s across the lowlands, with
70s and lower 80s expected in the mountains. Cooler, slightly
below normal lows are expected tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal
for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms
are also once again possible, with a bit better chances in
Virginia, although most of the region will remain dry.

An upper level short wave will then provide a chance of showers
and thunderstorms area wide Friday night.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms even more
for Saturday into Sunday. Models have a cold front pushing
through late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front
on Monday. Models still have some disagreement on the amount of
cooler air for Monday, but temperatures should be either near
normal or below normal for this time of year.

The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure
system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above
normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather should
prevail on Tuesday, but the southerly wind flow and another
approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

Seeing a mix of low stratus and dense fog across the forecast
area this morning. Low clouds are being reported at most sites,
but the heaviest restrictions are at the mountains sites and
across the northern lowlands where CIGs are IFR/LIFR.

Stark clearing is taking place across SE Ohio, Kentucky and
the western lowlands of WV. Visible satellite is showing dense
fog along the sheltered valleys and rivers across the these
areas, so IFR/LIFR VIS restrictions from fog are possible at HTS
and PKB for the next hour as this cloud deck continues to erode
away.

VFR will resume for most locations outside of the mountains by
~13-14Z. VFR will likely resume at the mountain locations by
~18Z this afternoon.

Winds are calm to light and from the north early this morning.
Light northerly to northeasterly flow will pick up by afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low stratus and fog diminishing may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC