439
FXUS61 KRLX 270709
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
309 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses this morning, causing showers and storms
to diminish. Near seasonable temperatures expected today.
Another cold front crosses this weekend, with additional storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

Cold front which has been crossing this past evening has nearly
exited the forecast area, taking showers and thunderstorms with
it; some lingering drizzle or light showers will remain across
the mountains through the morning though.

Low clouds and patchy fog expected in the wake of the front with
remnant low-level moisture and light to calm winds expected.
Visibilities and ceilings will be lower across the mountains and
western foothills, including the sheltered low lying river
valleys across the lowlands. This morning`s lows will struggle
to drop with cloud cover and trapped moisture. Expecting most
locations to remain in the 60s to around 70, with higher
elevations potentially dropping into the upper 50s.

The morning starts off with remnant clouds and fog, but will
dissipate after daybreak. Skies will clear by afternoon with
the passage of a secondary, drier cold front that will move
through. This reinforcing front will allow for drier weather,
north-northeast flow and more seasonable temperatures. Highs
this afternoon will rise into the 80s across the lowlands, with
70s and lower 80s expected in the mountains. Cooler, slightly
below normal lows are expected tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal
for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms
are also once again possible, with a bit better chances in
Virginia, although most of the region will remain dry.

An upper level short wave will then provide a chance of showers
and thunderstorms area wide Friday night.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms even more
for Saturday into Sunday. Models have a cold front pushing
through late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front
on Monday. Models still have some disagreement on the amount of
cooler air for Monday, but temperatures should be either near
normal or below normal for this time of year.

The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure
system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above
normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather should
prevail on Tuesday, but the southerly wind flow and another
approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Thunderstorms have all but subsided and precipitation is moving
eastward with a cold front crossing through the area. Low
clouds and fog will form as this activity subsides, with MVFR
conditions expected across a bulk of the area. IFR to VLIFR
expected in the mountains and foothills. The fog will lift
after the dawn, and then the clouds gradually lifting shortly
there after. VFR conditions will then take over from afternoon
on as drier air arrives ahead of high pressure to the north.

Winds of westerly or northerly direction will slack off and
remain light and variable to calm through the morning. Light
northerly to northeasterly flow will pick up by afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers diminishing may differ.
Location and intensity of low stratus and fog this morning may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 06/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    L    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC