890
FXUS61 KRLX 281710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
110 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and increasingly humid today with isolated afternoon storm
potential. Severe storms and heavy rain possible Saturday. Cold
front crosses Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Friday...

Key Point:
* Severe storms and heavy downpours possible Saturday afternoon
  and evening.

While most of the area should remain dry, a few showers or storms
could sneak into the southern part of the CWA this afternoon. A
frontal boundary is then expected to lift up through the area
as a low migrates across the northern US and southern Ontario
late today into tonight. The passage of this front could bring
additional precipitation into the area overnight before the low
continues northeast and directs a cold front towards the area
on Saturday.

Models point towards a break in activity early Saturday, then
chances of showers and storms increase for the afternoon and
evening as warm, moist air flows into the area ahead of the
approaching cold front. Model soundings project moderate to
strong instability develops by late afternoon, along with
around 30+ kts of shear, and DCAPE values in the vicinity of
1000 J/kg. The best potential for isolated to scattered severe
storms is expected to be in the late afternoon through the
evening. While damaging winds will be the primary concern, there
is also a non-zero risk for tornadoes or hail.

Heavy downpours should also accompany storms as precipitable
water values reach 1.5 to 2 inches. Widespread flooding is not
anticipated; however, poor drainage areas or locations impacted
by multiple storms could experience a localized high water issue
or two.

Temperatures for tonight are expected to be warm, with lows
remaining in the 60s to mid 70s. Highs for Saturday rise back
towards mid 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s
along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

By Saturday morning, a cold front will approach the area from
the northwest associated with a traversing low pressure system
across the Great Lakes. Due to the timing of the front, which
will be passing through during the afternoon and evening, and
with most of the severe indices we have in place at that time
frame all point towards severe storms being possible.

With plenty of instability and DCAPE along with above
environmental lapse rates and low CIN and also very high PWATS,
the main threat will be damaging wind and heavy downpours which
may lead to localized flooding across low lying or flood prone
areas. The only thing that may deter a lot of storms or at least
making them not last long will be the weak shear in place. Due
to the low so far north and with jet support up there and not
down near our area, winds in the upper levels will be weak to
modest at best creating a low shear environment.

The aforementioned cold front will kick out toward the
southeast by Sunday afternoon with broad high pressure building
in behind it keeping us dry into the next period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

A strong and broad surface high pressure system covers the area
with upper level ridging to secure our fate with dry air and
settled weather into midweek, possibly early Thursday morning.
The high pressure system will eventually slide east away from
the area while upper level ridging flattens out allowing a
frontal boundary to approach from the west. Long range models
have a good hold on this feature which is why the forecast
carries high chance POPs going from late Wednesday through
Thursday. From then on active weather sets in with diurnal
chances for thunderstorms on a daily basis along with a few
short waves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Friday...

VFR is expected to persist into tonight, with scattered to
broken clouds drifting overhead. An isolated shower or storm
could pop up in the vicinity of BKW this afternoon and evening.
Clouds are expected to increase and some additional
precipitation could be possible as a boundary lifts through
overnight. A cold front approaches from the west on Saturday.
While VFR is expected for the morning, flight conditions are
likely to deteriorate in storms and heavy rain during the
afternoon and evening.

South to southwest flow is expected through the TAF period,
with occasional gusts into the 15-20kt range along the mountains
this afternoon. 5-12kt flow should persist overnight, then
gusts may pick back up during the day Saturday. Even stronger
wind gusts will be possible within storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS could be possible in some locations
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JZ/JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JLB