379
FXUS61 KRLX 291700
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
100 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and increasingly humid today with storm potential. Severe
storms and heavy rain are possible today and Sunday. A cold front
crosses Sunday. Dry to start the week, becoming hot by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Saturday...

Rather warm and humid conditions are already present across the
area this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain a
possibility over the next couple of hours before more
widespread and organized convection arrives later this
afternoon and evening.

As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Point:
* Severe storms and heavy downpours possible this afternoon
  and evening.

A cold front approaches from the west late tonight into early
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, low level southwest flow will pump
moisture and warm air to the area with PWATs exceeding 2.0
inches, H850 theta-e values exceeding 340K and dewpoints in the
mid 70s. These moisture ingredients will destabilize the
atmosphere with the heat, providing CAPE exceeding 2500 J/Kg.
Guidance shows deep layer shear about 25-30 knots across the
northern half of the CWA this afternoon and evening. In
addition, guidance suggests an upper level short wave should
arrive around 8 PM to the Mid Ohio valley. This wave will provide
extra forcing to sustain strong to severe thunderstorms, more
numerous across the northern half of the area where deep layered
shear is higher. The best potential for isolated to scattered
severe storms is expected to be in the late afternoon through
the evening. While damaging winds will be the primary concern,
there is also a non-zero risk for tornadoes or hail.

Local soundings show a robust, moist and tall CAPE feature with
equilibrium levels about 45 kft. This will allow for strong to
severe updrafts conducive to heavy downpours and associated
localized flooding over poor drainage areas or locations
impacted by multiple storms.

Afternoon temperatures will rise into the lower 90s across the
lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s higher elevations. A muggy night
is anticipated with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Lows will range
from the low to mid 70s lowlands, into the mid 60s higher
elevations Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

The beginning of the new calendar month opens up with pleasant
weather in the wake of the weekend frontal passage. A brief
reprieve from the overbearing temperatures and dry weather will
arrive in the form of high pressure spreading over the Ohio
Valley. Afternoon highs are progged to only reach the upper 70s
in the central lowlands and the 60s along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Upper level ridging will continue to support dry weather on
Tuesday, with temperatures returning to seasonable for this time
of year.Pressure height rises will translate into a rise in
temperatures beginning on Tuesday and heading into highs
extending into the 90s across the lower elevations. The ridge
begins to flatten and sink down into the southern half of the
country on the 4th of July, making way for a frontal boundary
and its associated line of showers and storms. Models remain on
track with this boundary struggling to surpass the forecast area
on Thursday, becoming stationary over the area for the end of
the week. Maintained central guidance chance to likely POPs for
this timeframe, and held onto convection even during the
overnight hours due to the persnickety front hanging about
during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions to continue through the early afternoon
hours. Diurnal heating and ample moisture will destabilize the
atmosphere to produce strong to severe convection across the area.
Thunderstorms will be more numerous across the northern half of the
area affecting with good confidence PKB and CKB after 18Z.
Additional convection will be possible at other sites, but will code
VCTS for now as difficult to predict the exact tracks of storms.

In addition, an upper level disturbance will bring forcing to
sustain strong to severe updrafts/downdrafts this afternoon and
evening. Brief periods of IFR conditions under strong gusty winds
can be expected under or nearby thunderstorms with more confidence
across the northern sites. Using Hi-res CAMS models, timed and coded
thunderstorms with PROB30 during the late afternoon and evening
hours at PKB and CKB.

SPC maintains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon across northern and central portions of the area, with a
marginal risk farther south. The main severe threat with
thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts. The severe threat will
last on into the evening hours.

Light south to southwest flow will prevail today, becoming light and
variable tonight. Winds aloft will become light from the south
southeast through tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed in showers and
especially stronger thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ