828
FXUS61 KRLX 040237
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1037 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer with a brief dry spell for tonight and Tuesday, with
chances for a shower or storm in the mountains. Showers and
storms return Wednesday ahead of a cold front on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1037 PM Monday...

No necessary changes needed to the forecast this evening.
Temperatures have cooled off as anticipated and radar and
satellite trends have settled down for the night.

As of 740 PM Monday...

Freshened up POPs along the higher terrain for this evening,
where only pop up showers now only reside over Pocahontas
County, and no mention of thunder within our forecast area. Also
tinkered with temperatures for the evening hours, as hourly
temperatures have remained a few degrees above the inherited
forecast. Skies were also adjusted to depict mostly clear skies
now prevailing across the forecast area.

As of 145 PM Monday...

Weak high pressure, at the surface and aloft, will provide
clearing skies,and calm flow into Tuesday. This conditions will
allow for dense fog development, mainly along the river valleys
during the overnight hours tonight. Any fog will quickly
dissipate by 9 or 10 AM Tuesday morning.

Therefore, expect dry weather conditions tonight and for the
most part Tuesday. The exception will be weak convection
triggered by diurnal heating and available moisture Tuesday
afternoon and evening in and nearby the mountains. Mostly sunny
skies, high humidity and weak southerly flow will allow for a
hot Tuesday afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 80s
across the lowlands, ranging into the low 70s higher elevations.
Warm and humid night on tap tonight with dense fog developing
mainly along river valleys and temperatures generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Upper-level ridge starts to move off to the east Tuesday night,
ahead of a mid to upper level trough advancing from the
southwest. As a result, precipitation chances increase from
southwest to northeast Tuesday night, becoming more likely by
Wednesday afternoon with the disturbance overhead.

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to widespread in the
afternoon into the night. Severe weather threat still remains low at
this time, even with 1,500-2500 J/Kg SBCAPE and a 1,000-2,000 J/Kg
MLCAPE protrusion later in the evening. Bulk shear is not optimal
(15-20kts)which is likely the reason for lack of severe as storms
will not maintain longevity. Some models predict a low-level jet
arriving around sunset that will bring an enhanced 30-40kts of
shear, enough to help storm maintenance. Analyzing all of this,
thinking that strong storms and maybe an isolated severe storm are
possible Wednesday with damaging winds, heavy rainfall and even some
small hail being the main concerns.

Heavy rainfall appears to be of most concern Wednesday as
precipitable water values will be in excess of 1.50". Heavy
downpours will be likely within stronger showers and
thunderstorms and could lead to flash flooding. The area is
currently outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
Wednesday as these hydro concerns remain present, especially
urban areas and locations that received an abundance of rainfall
over the weekend.

Precipitation coverage and chances look to wane sharply after
sunset Wednesday night with higher chances remaining across the
mountains. Temperatures on Wednesday will be around normal to
slightly above with lower 80s across the lowlands; 60s and 70s
in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

The cold front will be traversing the area early Thursday, but
shower/thunderstorm chances will remain through the day as it
crosses. Only a few isolated showers or a stray storm remains
possible Thursday, as the atmosphere appears to be capped with
drier air intruding as this front passes. Was not keen to cut
PoPs Thursday afternoon though with temperatures projected to
be in the upper 70s and 80s for a large chunk of the area, still
any pop-up activity will be short-lived and will not boast any
significance. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon
behind this front, especially across the ridges.

The pattern then looks to remain not quite as warm, with
diurnal precipitation chances through the weekend as a behemoth
of an upper-level low drops out of Canada and remains just
north of the area. Several shortwaves look to move through the
upper-level pattern this weekend allowing for chance PoPs each
afternoon through Sunday. Temperatures will fall from
seasonable upper 70s and 80s down into the 70s across the
lowlands, with the mountains staying in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Monday...

Today`s shower and storm activity has vanished immensely at the
time of writing along with afternoon cumulus fields now
diminishing. Overnight forecast brings another chance for fog
development for central and eastern terminals. Included IFR
possibilities at CRW, CKB, and BKW, with lesser confidence in
vsby restrictions transpiring at HTS, PKB, and BKW. Anything
that does develop will quickly erode with daytime mixing after
sunrise Tuesday morning. Outside of isolated mountain showers
and storms in the afternoon, high pressure will promote VFR
conditions and light winds for the second half of the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR conditions may vary from the forecast
overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 06/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK