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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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122 FXUS61 KRLX 281029 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 629 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly clear/cool this late morning under high pressure. Warm and increasingly humid today with isolated afternoon storm potential. A cold front crosses mid weekend, with more storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Friday... High pressure fleets toward the east away from the area allowing southerly flow to ramp up bringing in higher dewpoints and much more moisture. By the afternoon, a system headed for the Great Lakes will drag a warm frontal boundary from south to north across the CWA. This feature will promote thunderstorm activity, however the severe threat does not exist and the activity should be confined to just isolated in nature more than anything else. Not to say there cannot be a strong to severe storm due to modest wind shear, heck of a lot of DCAPE with plenty instability and moisture as we get up in the low 90`s and low 70`s in temperatures and dewpoints, respectively. If the Cu field during the afternoon gets agitated, and if any moderate Cu could then get past the low to midlevel CAPs, then thunderstorms may become strong instead of the pulse weak type. There is also a lot of very dry air in the mid to upper levels as seen by the intense hydrolapses on the forecast soundings which will be a thunderstorm deterrent. Regardless, we shouldn`t see too much activity until the cold front comes later on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... By Saturday morning, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest associated with a traversing low pressure system across the Great Lakes. Due to the timing of the front, which will be passing through during the afternoon and evening, and with most of the severe indices we have in place at that time frame all point towards severe storms being possible. With plenty of instability and DCAPE along with above environmental lapse rates and low CIN and also very high PWATS, the main threat will be damaging wind and heavy downpours which may lead to localized flooding across low lying or flood prone areas. The only thing that may deter a lot of storms or at least making them not last long will be the weak shear in place. Due to the low so far north and with jet support up there and not down near our area, winds in the upper levels will be weak to modest at best creating a low shear environment. The aforementioned cold front will kick out toward the southeast by Sunday afternoon with broad high pressure building in behind it keeping us dry into the next period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... A strong and broad surface high pressure system covers the area with upper level ridging to secure our fate with dry air and settled weather into midweek, possibly early Thursday morning. The high pressure system will eventually slide east away from the area while upper level ridging flattens out allowing a frontal boundary to approach from the west. Long range models have a good hold on this feature which is why the forecast carries high chance POPs going from late Wednesday through Thursday. From then on active weather sets in with diurnal chances for thunderstorms on a daily basis along with a few short waves. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM Friday... Some valley fog across the mountain valleys have brought down EKN to IFR for this morning as well as MVFR in fog at CRW, but the other sites were left out. During the rest of the period, VFR will remain the dominant flight category. During the afternoon a Cu field, above MVFR, should develop and there may be some isolated shower and storm potential, but this will be very isolated in nature, therefore left mention out of TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JZ