984
FXUS61 KRLX 300642
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
242 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid, with strong, heavy storms possible into
Sunday. A cold front brings an end to threat Sunday evening.
Dry to start the week, becoming hot again Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley around 8 AM this morning
to encounter a very juicy and unstable environment with SB CAPE
exceeding 3000 J/Kg, PWATs around 2 inches and deep layered shear
from 25 to 40 knots. Latest Hi-res CAMS suggest additional showers
and thunderstorms will develop under this environment during the
predawn hours as the front arrives. Any thunderstorm that manage
to develop will produce heavy downpours capable to produce minor
localized water issues along their path. In addition, strong gusty
winds will accompany the stronger storms. SPC has outlooked most
of the area under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, except
for SE OH where general thunderstorms exist.

The cold front will move slowly east with convective elements ahead
of the front continuing into the afternoon hours when heating
becomes part of the equation. The cold front finally exits southeast
of the Appalachians by 9 PM Sunday with precipitation gradually
tapering off from west to east behind the front.

Warm temperatures this afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 80s
lowlands, into the lower 70s higher elevations. Behind the front, a
broad surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes providing
northerly flow and much fresher airmass to the area Sunday evening.
Lows are expected to be in the mid to lower 50s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 40s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

The beginning of the new calendar month opens up with pleasant
weather in the wake of the weekend frontal passage. A brief
reprieve from the overbearing temperatures and dry weather will
arrive in the form of high pressure spreading over the Ohio
Valley. Afternoon highs are progged to only reach the upper 70s
in the central lowlands and the 60s along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Upper level ridging will continue to support dry weather on
Tuesday, with temperatures returning to seasonable for this time
of year.Pressure height rises will translate into a rise in
temperatures beginning on Tuesday and heading into highs
extending into the 90s across the lower elevations. The ridge
begins to flatten and sink down into the southern half of the
country on the 4th of July, making way for a frontal boundary
and its associated line of showers and storms. Models remain on
track with this boundary struggling to surpass the forecast area
on Thursday, becoming stationary over the area for the end of
the week. Maintained central guidance chance to likely POPs for
this timeframe, and held onto convection even during the
overnight hours due to the persnickety front hanging about
during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 143 AM Sunday...

Radar imagery shows the bulk of convection associated with a passing
short wave, exiting the eastern mountains overnight. However, the
atmosphere remains very juicy and unstable, and convection may
develop overnight into early Sunday morning ahead of an arriving
cold front. Therefore, showers and storms are expected to continue
across the area through Sunday as the front advance southeast,
finally exiting the eastern mountains by 00Z Monday.

Any thunderstorm tonight into Sunday can produce strong wind gusts,
and brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions.

MVFR stratocumulus develops before dawn Sunday. This stratocu will
gradually lift and break up from west to east Sunday afternoon.

Light south to southwest surface flow tonight, except strong and
gusty from the southwest to northwest in thunderstorms, will become
light west behind the prefrontal wind shift Sunday morning, and then
light northwest behind the cold front Sunday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed for lower flight
category within storms or heavy rain. IFR ceilings are possible
along the mountains Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 06/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in stratus, at least in and near the mountains,
overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Brief IFR possible
in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ