893
FXUS61 KRLX 271715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
115 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and cool tonight under high pressure. Warm and
increasingly humid on Friday. Another cold front crosses this
weekend, with additional storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...

Quite a bit of scattered to broken cu remains across the forecast
area this afternoon. This should generally dissipate around sunset.
Otherwise, high pressure building into the area will provide for a
clear, calm, and cool night tonight. Some patchy fog is possible
towards morning, but will quickly burn off by around 12-13Z. On
Friday, surface high shifts east and heights build out ahead of
approaching system. Temperatures and humidity will build across the
region again, with high temperatures on Friday climbing back into
the 90s for many lowland locations. Could have an isolated shower or
storm on Friday, but most areas should remain generally dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal
for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms
are also once again possible, with a bit better chances in
Virginia, although most of the region will remain dry.

An upper level short wave will then provide a chance of showers
and thunderstorms area wide Friday night.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms even more
for Saturday into Sunday. Models have a cold front pushing
through late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front
on Monday. Models still have some disagreement on the amount of
cooler air for Monday, but temperatures should be either near
normal or below normal for this time of year.

The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure
system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above
normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather should
prevail on Tuesday, but the southerly wind flow and another
approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 07Z, when
patchy MVFR/IFR fog is expected to develop, particularly in
favored river valleys. After 12Z, expect a return to VFR with
light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More valley fog may develop overnight that
currently predicted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL