604
FXUS61 KRLX 211048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
648 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend opens up with a cold front that may produce a few
afternoon showers along the mountains. Drying out for the
remainder of the weekend, growing unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

Increased clouds across the area this morning as the cold front
charges in from the west. Radar trends at the time of writing
depicted some isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms moving
from west to east through Ohio and Kentucky as mid to upper
level vorticity triggers early morning development. Increased
POPs a bit along the western flank of the forecast area for this
morning, but still think this activity will weaken as it
approaches Central Appalachia.

As of 215 AM Saturday...

The weekend opens up with temperatures more applicable with
Summer, as many spots in the Tri-State area will once again
reach the low 90s. The culprit warm front responsible for these
unseasonably warm forecast highs will sail northward this
morning to make room for an encroaching disturbance.

A weak cold front will zip through the forecast area today,
with contributions from a shortwave trough that will encourage
showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain this
afternoon. A narrow ribbon from New York down to Virginia was
placed in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, scraping a
few of our northeast WV counties. Main concerns with stronger
storms later today will be gusty winds and hail.

A dose of measurable rainfall will also be feasible with
activity today, but will be limited to only a few tenths of an
inch for the mountains and foothills of West Virginia.
Certainly not enough to put a dent in the historic drought
underway in the forecast area.

The front will vacate the region by late this evening, with
lingering showers wrapping up around sunset. A decent signal
for river valley fog in the wake of the frontal passage will be
present overnight into Sunday morning. This will be especially
true for areas that receive precipitation today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Mid-level ridging is situated across the region on Sunday
leading to one last hot and dry day for awhile. While the wind
will not be strong, given the heat, drought, and low RH in the
30% range, elevated fire weather is likely during the afternoon.

The mid-level ridge flattens and shifts east on Monday with a
warm front lifting north through the region. This will result in
a significant increase in moisture and showers/storms will
overspread the area through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Confidence in the forecast is high into Thursday morning as a
cold front moves through the region bringing showers/storms.
While rainfall amounts do not look significant, widespread
beneficial rains appear increasingly likely. GEFS plumes cluster
most locales across the CWA in the 0.4" to 1.6" range, which
align well with WPC QPF that continues to trend upward. Some
localized areas could see higher amounts, but probability really
drops off around 2".

As we move into late week, confidence in the forecast lowers
drastically. There are a number of varying solutions as the
models become messy, with the GFS currently an outlier.
Different solutions vary from a stalled upper level low across
the MS/OH valleys, to a large upper level low developing off the
eastern Seaboard. This has major implications on the forecast
between dry/wet weather. Even with the differences, there is at
least some confidence that we are headed toward a wetter and
more unsettled pattern. This increased confidence or lean to
wetter conditions is picked up in the CPC 6-10 day showing
increased chances of above average precip.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

Fog development was limited overnight to the higher mountain
valleys, even staying out of EKN due to the fact that mid to
level clouds were building into the area.

A weak cold front will progress eastward today, bringing a
broken deck of clouds and the chance for showers/storms in the
afternoon, primarily along the mountains. Airfields should
remain VFR during this timeframe, but VCSH/VCTS was included for
sites close to anticipated convection for this afternoon and
evening.

In the wake of the front, better potential for fog to encompass
further down into the lowlands will transpire. This will be
especially true for areas that receive rain during the day
today. Hinted at this possibility for the concluding hours of
this latest TAF issuance.

Winds will shift out of the west/northwest for the second half
of the day Saturday in response to FROPA, but remaining light
and oftentimes variable during the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN may sneak down briefly into IFR this
morning within partial clearing skies.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 09/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Sunday morning with river valley fog in
the mountains and down into the central lowlands.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...MEK