783
FXUS61 KRLX 130522
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
122 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry today. Chance for
showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot and muggy to
end the week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Thursday...

Any patchy valley fog mixes out shortly after daybreak this
morning.

Surface high pressure remains entrenched across much of the eastern
half of the country. Weak high zonal flow aloft is yielding pretty
paltry low level southwest flow with low level moisture slow to
increase through the day as a result. Even with daytime highs rising
to the upper 80s to lower 90 across the lower elevations, it won`t
feel that oppressive yet with dew points still in the upper
50s/lower 60s. Couldn`t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm near
the mountains this afternoon, but just about everyone should stay
dry until cold frontal passage Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday with
approaching mid-level vorticity and a surface cold front. As
the cold front approaches, dew points ahead of it will reach
60-70 degrees. This, along with afternoon peak heating, will
provide fuel for afternoon convection. SPC currently has
northern portions of WV and southeast OH outlooked in a marginal
risk of severe weather for Friday afternoon and evening, mainly
for the threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. Confidence
remains low at this time, as models are having difficulty
grasping the magnitude of instability. Some models only predict
around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE develops by Friday afternoon, while
other models are more aggressive, showing 500-1,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE developing. 0-6 km shear will be anywhere from 30-40 kts
ahead of the cold front, which should be ample enough to support
organized convection. We will have to wait and see how things
pan out, as there could end up being too much low level moisture
and clouds present, which could keep thunderstorms below severe
limits.

Friday`s cold front will help remove some of the humidity for
the weekend, but it won`t be very effective at cooling us down.
Highs are expected to be from the middle to upper 80s Friday
afternoon, and Saturday`s highs will be from the lower to middle
80s behind the front. Dry conditions are expected Saturday as a
ridge strengthens over the Southeast U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1219 PM Wednesday...

An extended hot, summerlike pattern will develop Sunday through most
of next week with high pressure strengthening over the eastern 1/3
of the country. Models show 500-mb heights rising to 592dm by Sunday
and potentially reaching 596-598dm by the end of next week. The
ECMWF favors a largely dry solution most of next week, while
other models like the GFS and Canadian show more of a ring-of-
fire scenario mid- to-late week with vorticity flowing around
the outskirts of the ridge. We believe the drier solution should
largely win out, but we decided to include slight chance PoPs
for mid-to-late week to account for the possibility of mid-level
disturbances triggering thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 AM Thursday...

Patchy valley fog may affect EKN/CRW/PKB/HTS this morning, otherwise
mostly clear skies through the period with light winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may or may not form this
morning.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 06/13/24
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP