Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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216 FXUS61 KRLX 171751 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged heat wave builds throughout the week. Isolated showers or storms will be possible today and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1050 AM Monday... Increased PoPs across the northeast to better reflect current radar trends. As of 625 AM Monday... Showers and a few storms have developed within the northern half of the CWA this morning. Have freshened up PoPs to reflect the precipitation coverage seen on radar. As of 300 AM Monday... Key Point: * Heat indices will reach the lower 100s across parts of the lowlands this afternoon. * Heat Advisory begins late this morning. While high pressure will be present in the upper levels, a surface front crosses the area early this morning and brings the possibility of a shower or two as it moves through. Following the departure of the front, moisture and very warm air are expected to feed into the area while upper level high pressure remains in place overhead. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may begin to develop as heat and humidity create unstable conditions this afternoon and evening. While forecast soundings show an impressive amount of CAPE, shear should be modest. A few storms could become strong, with heavy rain also a possibility as precipitable water values rise into the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Any convective activity will taper off with the loss of daytime heating, then quieter conditions are expected overnight. High temperatures are projected to climb into the 90s across much of the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains. The heat index will be even higher, with low 100s possible for portions of the lowlands this afternoon. A Heat Advisory begins late this morning and then continues beyond the near term period as a heat wave persists for much of the week. Heat safety will be important this week, so here are a few tips: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals * Know the signs of heat illness && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... High pressure across the eastern U.S. will remain in control Wednesday and Thursday, with continued above normal temperatures across the region. Overall, conditions should be relatively stable and drier, and am not really expecting much in the way of showers or storms to develop either of these days. Heat indices both days may not quite reach the 100 degree mark, but the heat will still be oppressive none the less, with at least upper 90s heat indices expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1205 PM Monday... Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control for much of the week, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will generally only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, may continue to warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across much of the lowland counties this weekend. Ridge finally breaks down towards the end of the period as low pressure moves east across the Great Lakes region, sweeping a cold front through the area. Along with a break in the oppressive heat, showers and storms will become more numerous during the time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 625 AM Monday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible as a front lifts to the north this morning. Additional activity is expected to develop as heat and humidity increase this afternoon. While VFR should continue for the majority of the day, brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur in showers and storms. Activity diminishes after sundown, then at least partial clearing and calm surface flow may allow for patches of valley fog to form overnight. Outside of storms, winds remain light with a south to southwest direction today. Calm to light southerly winds are then expected tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR could occur in showers or thunderstorms today and valley fog tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/SL NEAR TERM...JP/JLB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JLB