378
FXUS61 KRLX 050536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy with a wave of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Another wave of convection ahead of a cold front late tonight.
Cooler temperatures anticipated this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

Fairly potential active day ahead as synoptically a
semi-stationary boundary will drape across the northern tier of
the CWA while we are in the warm sector with southerly flow
pumping plenty of moisture into the area. The frontal boundary
will eventually lift north by this evening. PWATs are up near
1.5 inches, the column will be saturated in the mid to upper
levels and long skinny CAPE all tells us that heavy down pours
are possible within shower or storms which will be capable of
pumping down significant amounts of rainfall in as short period
of time. QPF is generally around an inch for today into Thursday
morning and heavy convection will likely add to those totals in
certain areas, especially west of the Ohio River.

WPC has placed us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall so an
isolated water issue is not out of the question. There will not
be too much instability (greatest instability likely along the
Ohio River and west of there) as cloud coverage will stay fairly
high today, however there will be enough to support storm
activity area-wide. Some storms could be strong to severe
across the Ohio River and west of there. SPC has place that area
under a marginal risk for severe with the main threat being
damaging wind, hail and we cannot rule out a tornado or two.

Outside the threats we are looking at a warm although guidance had
much higher temperatures than in the current forecast which was
lowered by a few degrees due to the amount of cloud coverage
and rainfall expected. Hi-res models imply there will be a wave
of convection during the afternoon and another wave ahead of the
cold front to our west late tonight. Overnight lows will be
fairly high with clouds suppressing any radiational cooling
along with fairly decent mixing at the surface through the
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

A low-level jet could develop Wednesday evening/night, allowing
for the threat of stronger thunderstorms before all is said and
done. CAPE will be on the downward trend after sunset though,
however a few models show an MLCAPE boundary of 1,000J/Kg that
could keep activity going a bit past sunset. Shear also looks to
increase from 15-20kts to 20-30kts with the arrival of the LLJ.
Still, these values are not conducive to a large-scale severe
threat, so the thinking is maybe a few stronger or isolated
severe storms with damaging winds and small hail. There is a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across our SE Ohio
counties and portions of WV along the Ohio River Wednesday
evening/night.

Heavy downpours will still be a continued concern in the
evening with PWATs in the neighborhood of 1.50-1.75". Isolated
flash flooding instances will be on the table and the area is
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Wednesday
night.

PoPs taper off from west to east Wednesday night, becoming more
confined to the mountains as a large, upper-level low moves down out
of Canada and forces a cold front through. Thursday looks to start
off dry as a result, but chances for diurnal showers or storms
remain as temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across the
lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Some quarrel with this is
that the atmosphere looks to be capped Thursday, with a mid to
upper-level dry layer. That said, kept higher chance PoPs
farther east along the mountains where the elevated heat source
and lift will be more favorable for storm/shower formation.

Conditions look to become fairly dry across the area Thursday night
with lows dropping back in the 50s to around 60 for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Previously mentioned low pressure system will remain just north of
the area for the long term period, which means somewhat active
weather through the weekend. Severe weather does not look to be on
the table right now, but the chances for the usual diurnal
shower/thunderstorm activity remains each day, even at the
beginning of next week.

Starting Friday, temperatures will be less warm, but still
comfortable with 70s across the lowlands; upper 50s to low 70s
in the mountains. Overnight lows the weekend will be cooler with
the lowlands dropping to the 50s each night and mid 40s to mid
50s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Have HTS/PKB developing fog this morning due to recent rainfall
as well as some fog inserted to EKN TAF. Any fog lifts by 13Z.
The rest of the site will be under VFR until this afternoon
where a wave of convection will likely start up and cause some
VIS restrictions periodically. CIGs should stay relatively
elevated in height but could sneak down to high end MVFR at
times under thunderstorm or shower activity. There may be a
slight lull in the evening but then by late tonight another wave
of convection ahead of a cold front will cause more
restrictions to VIS and CIGs. Winds will stay elevated and
south-southwest for the period with gust in the teens this
afternoon and evening possible as well as with frontal passage
by Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development may spread to other TAF
sites this morning.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 06/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ