Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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187 FXUS61 KRLX 210447 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1247 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The heat wave continues into the weekend courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1245 AM Friday... A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Models indicating a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms along the mountains and in portions of southeast Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 113 PM Thursday... The hot and humid weather will continue on Saturday as the upper- level ridge remains over the East. Expect air temperatures to reach the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s to lower 90s across the mountains. With dew point temperatures expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will once again `feel like` the lower 100s for many. The chance of an isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the afternoon as the heat bubbles up. Sunday will be another hot day, but perhaps not as hot as Saturday. High clouds will roll in from the northwest Sunday morning as a cold front slowly approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes. More clouds than sun is expected by the afternoon, and most places will see chances of thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely swing through overnight Sunday night, with precipitation chances increasing to 50-70% areawide. Heavy downpours are possible, as PWATS are projected to be anywhere from 1.5-2.0 inches areawide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 113 PM Thursday... In the wake of the cold front, Monday will finally be a break from the intense heat. Many of the lowlands spots will see highs in the upper 80s with slightly lower humidity, thanks to a northwest wind in a postfrontal airmass. Unfortunately, this isn`t going to last very long because models are showing another ridge building in from the west by Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures rebounding into the middle 90s across the lowlands again. Chances of rain may return again next Wednesday as another front approaches from the west. Next Thursday is expected to be cooler again in the wake of a front. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM Friday... Some patchy fog could form this morning, mainly in mountain river valleys. There is also a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms along the mountains and in portions of southeast Ohio, but chances are too small to include in the TAFs. Outside of these 2 items, expect VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Medium with fog, otherwise high. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/21/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M M L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...RPY