289
FXUS61 KRLX 242338
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
738 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
More seasonable air and drier weather today. Warmer Tuesday.
Another cold front Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Seasonably warm today, hotter on Tuesday.
* High pressure brings drier weather through Tuesday.

High pressure builds into the area during the day while a shortwave
departs to the east. The increasing influence of high pressure
will allow for drier conditions across the area, though clouds
are expected to linger into the evening. After a seasonably warm
day, temperatures for tonight should be near to slightly below
normal as lows ease into the 50s to low 60s. Areas of valley fog
may also form as skies clear and winds become calm to light
overnight into early Tuesday morning.

While dry weather is expected to persist for the majority of
the area on Tuesday, showers could eventually seep into
southeast Ohio late in the day as high pressure gradually shifts
east in advance of the next system. Tuesday will be hotter than
today, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s
in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

By Wednesday, showers and storms will be on the increase once again,
possibly in multiple rounds, with one round possible in the morning,
and another later in the day as an upper trough and cold front start
to move through the area. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe, and will contain heavy downpours, but much of this will also
depend on the effects any morning convection has on the atmosphere,
and whether we can recover enough for much in the way of severe to
occur. For now, SPC has the area highlighted in a marginal risk.
Frontal boundary should be to the east of the mountains by Thursday
morning. Enough moisture may continue to linger across the mountains
on Thursday for additional showers and storms, but most of the area
should be dry, and cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

High pressure will build into the area for Friday, with mainly dry,
but warmer conditions as upper heights build and southerly flow
increases out ahead of the next system. Showers and storms will
increase across the area by late Saturday into Sunday as a cold
front associated with this system, moving east across Canada,
affects the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 738 PM Monday...

Afternoon cu will dissipate leading to clear skies and
widespread VFR conditions for the most part. Clear skies and
near calm flow will allow for patchy dense fog development along
protected river valleys. Local sounding shows a strong radiational
cooling inversion, suggesting the formation of dense fog along
river valleys. Therefore, coded IFR dense fog at most sites from
09-12Z, but BKW which conditions should stay VFR.

A relaxed pressure gradient will keep light to calm
winds tonight and Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time and extent of fog tonight may
vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ