741
FXUS61 KRLX 180644
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
244 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated strong storms will be possible today. A prolonged heat
wave continues throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Hot, with potential for isolated strong storms and locally heavy
  rain this afternoon and evening.
* Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are gradually diminishing in
coverage while areas of fog begin to form early this morning. Any
fog that does develop should disperse around sunrise.

In the upper levels, high pressure will be in control over much of
the eastern US both today and tonight. Beneath this high, hot
daytime temperatures and humidity will again lead to unstable
conditions and the potential for showers and storms during the day.
Much like yesterday, model soundings show strong CAPE, weak shear,
and precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range during the
afternoon and evening hours. In this environment, isolated storms
could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Much of the
area resides in a general thunderstorm risk, though a marginal risk
of severe weather has been introduced for a portion of southeast
Ohio. Shower and storm activity should lessen tonight.

High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s in the lowlands
this afternoon, while the mountains should range from mid 70s to low
90s. A couple of climate sites could come within a few degrees of
their record highs (see climate discussion below). A Heat
Advisory also remains in effect as a combination of heat and
humidity are projected to make it feel more like upper 90s to
low 100s in the lowlands this afternoon. Tonight will be warm,
with lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands
and low to mid 60s in the mountains.

Heat safety tips:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals
* Know the signs of heat illness

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

High pressure across the eastern U.S. will remain in control
Wednesday and Thursday, with continued above normal temperatures
across the region. Overall, conditions should be relatively stable
and drier, and am not really expecting much in the way of showers or
storms to develop either of these days. Heat indices both days may
not quite reach the 100 degree mark, but the heat will still be
oppressive none the less, with at least upper 90s heat indices
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control for much
of the week, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers
and storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will
generally only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of
temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, may
continue to warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across
much of the lowland counties this weekend. Ridge finally breaks down
towards the end of the period as low pressure moves east across the
Great Lakes region, sweeping a cold front through the area. Along
with a break in the oppressive heat, showers and storms will become
more numerous during the time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are present at all sites, though brief MVFR isn`t out
of the question as a few showers and storms traverse the area.
Activity should gradually lessen early this morning, then a few
areas of fog may form - generally in locations that received
rain earlier in the night. Any fog should dissipate around
sunrise, resulting in a return to areawide VFR. While mainly
VFR conditions are then anticipated for the balance of the TAF
period, brief reductions could occur in isolated showers and
storms that once again develop during the day.

Light south to southeast flow is expected outside of convection.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief VIS restrictions could occur in fog
overnight and showers/storms during the day. Coverage of both
fog and precipitation may vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the area through this
week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to
Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19| Thursday, 6/20 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 98 (1944) | 91 / 98 (1919) | 93 / 99 (1931) |
HTS | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1994) | 95 /100 (1931) |
CKB | 93 / 96 (1936) | 92 / 94 (1994) | 93 / 94 (1931) |
PKB | 94 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 95 (1994) | 95 / 97 (1931) |
BKW | 86 / 93 (1936) | 85 / 90 (1944) | 87 / 92 (1931) |
EKN | 90 / 91 (1994) | 90 / 89 (1905) | 90 / 92 (1931) |
--------------------------------------------------------
       Friday, 6/21  | Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 96 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) | 93 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 97 / 99 (1953) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 95 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 98 / 97 (1953) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 91 / 93 (1953) | 90 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 92 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) | 89 / 89 (1899) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus
the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     96     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     97     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     95     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     91     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     92     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...