Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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611 FXUS61 KRLX 171538 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1138 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek. Mainly dry/settled weather comes back end of week/weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1115 AM Tuesday... Sent a quick update to adjust hourly temperatures and dewpoints closer to latest observation trends. Abundant cloudiness will continue to keep temperatures at bay, providing pleasant temperatures through this evening. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 230 AM Tuesday... As the low pressure system to our south inches closer under weak steering flow, conditions across the area will slowly deteriorate throughout the day. Clouds will lower and grow thicker throughout the day suppressing daytime heating somewhat and preventing temperatures from increasing past the 80 degree mark. Comfortable low to mid 70s expected across much of the area with some locations to the extreme south likely dipping down below even the 70 degree mark today. Light rain showers will be on the table for much of the day but most activity will likely remain along the mountains until this afternoon when chances increase for the southern half of the area. The northern half of the area will struggle to get some activity going but will have better chances through the afternoon. During the afternoon chances for thunderstorm activity will be possible for basically just the southern half of the area which may increase rain totals for the day. Otherwise, not much rainfall is expected outside the extreme southern and northeastern borders of our CWA. Rain chances will significantly become lower by the evening and into the overnight with temperatures only dropping into the lower 60s due to cloud coverage with slightly cooler temperatures expected in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Tuesday... A stacked, occluded low pressure system south of the area Wednesday morning fills as it drifts slowly east away from the area Wednesday through Thursday night. Showers are most likely in and near the mountains Wednesday, with the least chance out over the middle Ohio Valley. While there will still be enough moisture in the column for a heavier shower here and there, most of the rain will be light, barely enough to help ease fire concerns, let alone put any dent in our drought. If anything, the higher humidity alone will help with the former. There may be enough heating and destabilization for a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon, and shower coverage will become more diurnally driven as the system weakens and drifts away through Thursday night. Most of the area will dry out Wednesday night, followed by a diurnal uptick in the chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, mainly east of the Ohio River, before promptly drying out again Thursday night. Temperatures will average close to normal, but the diurnal range will widen a bit with some decease in cloud. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Tuesday... Ridging surface and aloft conspires to bring dry, warmer weather Friday through the weekend, as it builds from the west aloft and from the northeast at the surface. Central guidance averages out any chance for precipitation associated with a disturbance or two in the mid level northwest flow, before the ridge builds in this weekend. The dry weather may continue into Monday, but a pattern change early next week may actually bring the northern stream back into the picture, as a southern stream short wave trough is picked up by a northern stream counterpart over the Midwest. High temperatures climb a bit further above normal, and then level off, while lows remain near normal this period. Highs in the mid to upper 80s combined with dew points in the 50s will result in minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 30s, even some 20s, Friday through at least the weekend. Given the forecast stretch of dry weather ensues, fire weather concerns would likely return. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... The main theme for this TAF period is a slow progression of deteriorating conditons with possible shower activity. Mid clouds will quickly turn to low clouds through the morning. Light rain showers will be on the table throughout the period for BKW/CWR with some rain potential for the rest of the sites during the afternoon, except for HTS/CKB who should remain mostly dry. Restrictions to VIS and CIGs may drop down to MVFR or possibly worse at times under shower activity, however the predominant flight category should remain VFR for most sites except for BKW/EKN who will drop into MVFR during the morning and continue to worsen throughout the period. There is potential for LLWS across the mountains during the early morning hours at BKW/EKN and will likely become negated by the late morning when surface flow increases. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There could be some thunderstorm activity during the afternoon, but should only be confined to CRW/BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L H L M L L M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L H H M M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains through Wednesday morning, and again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JZ