456
FXUS61 KRLX 170545
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather, and elevated fire danger, continues today under
strong high pressure. An area of low pressure off the Atlantic
coast brings the chance for beneficial rain tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

A surface high pressure, which has been producing dry weather
conditions for the past several days, will retreat northeast
tonight. This will allow for the remnants of tropical cyclone #8 to
move from the east against the eastern mountains through Tuesday.
Expect an increase in high to mid level clouds and light showers
mainly along the eastern mountains tonight into Tuesday. Any shower
that survives the eastern mountains will remain light across the
lowlands tonight into Tuesday. Clouds will lower into low stratus
across and near the mountains tonight and at least Tuesday
morning.

Lows will generally be in the upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the
mid 50s northeast mountains. However, temperatures may differ due to
cloud cover. Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will
provide near normal highs for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 103 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Rounds of showers are expected Wednesday, but it won`t be
  nearly enough rain to improve the drought.
* High relative humidity values expected Wednesday and Thursday
  will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

Models are projecting that the remnants of what is currently
"Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight" will be centered somewhere
near the western NC/SC border Wednesday morning with very little
movement throughout the day Wednesday. This will bring rounds
of showers into portions of the area Wednesday. The rain will be
beneficial, but it won`t be nearly enough rain to improve the
drought. Relative humidity values will range from 70-80%, which
will mitigate any fire weather issues for a brief time. High
temperatures Wednesday will remain slightly below average due to
the increased cloud coverage.

Models are coming into better agreement for later this week, and
most members are showing the remnant low weakening and tracking
northeast along the Appalachian mountains Thursday. Isolated showers
remain possible Thursday, but chances will be lower as dry air
spills into the area from the north. Temperatures will be closer to
average for the middle of September. We also expect more breaks in
the clouds by the afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast
and mid-level dry air approaches from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 104 PM Monday...

Key Point:

* Went with a warm and dry forecast for this weekend, but
  confidence is low at this time.
* Fire threat may increase again this weekend.

Models are showing low pressure centered somewhere over the
Northeast Friday, but beyond Friday, models diverge and the overall
pattern becomes more uncertain. Latest runs of the GFS and Canadian
models show low pressure pushing out to sea and another upper-level
ridge building into the Ohio Valley this weekend, while latest runs
of the ECMWF instead show the closed upper-level low lingering over
the East Coast to finish off the weekend. We suspect the ECMWF may
be an outlier and went with a warm, dry forecast for this weekend,
but confidence is low at this time.

Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the
30-40% range Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons across
parts of the lowlands. This could lead to an increased threat
of fires once again if the dry forecast holds this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

The main theme for this TAF period is a slow progression of
deteriorating conditons with possible shower activity. Mid
clouds will quickly turn to low clouds overnight and into the
morning. Light rain showers will be on the table throughout the
period for BKW/CWR with some rain potential for the rest of the
sites during the afternoon, except for HTS/CKB who should
remain dry. Restrictions to VIS and CIGs may drop down to MVFR
or possibly worse at times under shower activity, however the
predominant flight category should remain VFR for most sites
except for BKW/EKN who will drop into MVFR during the morning
and continue to worsen throughout the period. There is potential
for LLWS across the mountains during the early morning hours at
BKW/EKN and will likely become negated by the late morning when
surface flow increases.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There could be some thunderstorm activity
during the afternoon, but should only be confined to CRW/BKW.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 09/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ