Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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299 FXUS61 KRLX 160609 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 209 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An extended heat wave builds Sunday through next week amid mainly dry weather courtesy of an upper level ridge. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM Sunday... Key Point: * Although Heat Index values will likely remain below advisory criteria Sunday, the air will still feel uncomfortably hot and humid. Remember to practice heat safety! Today will likely be the first of many above 90F for most lowland locations, with forecast highs up to the mid-90s. Compared to the next several days, dew points won`t be as bad today, `only` in the mid-60s during the afternoon hours, so heat index values aren`t forecast to crack the 100F advisory level. The Excessive Heat Watch will remain in effect for now, for the potential need for a warning or advisory on any or multiple days this week. Aside from the heat, we look to be dry under mostly clear skies today and tonight, with just some thin high clouds expected over the area. Gentle S`ly breezes develop today, with a few gusts possible, before calming down again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1250 PM Saturday... Key Points: * Heat wave initiates next week. * Excessive Heat Watch in effect Monday through Friday. Ample upper level high pressure across the southeastern US Sunday night will move overhead by Monday, remaining in place through Tuesday. This system will block any shortwave over our area through this period. However, H850 flow turns southwest pumping rich theta-e airmass into our area. Dewpoints in the mid 60s Sunday night will increase to the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggests PWATs above 2 standard deviation from climatology from 1.6 to 2 inches. Mostly sunny skies will provide the heat needed to destabilize the atmosphere. Local soundings shows a slender tall CAPE (equilibrium level about 40kft), and low level mixing signatures Monday afternoon and evening. Under a high CAPE (+2500 J/Kg) and low deep shear environment, expect at least isolated strong-slow moving thunderstorms. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable to produce heavy rain and strong wind gusts. SPC has the area outlooked just in general thunderstorms for now. The same environment will persist into Tuesday, with few slow-moving strong convection during the afternoon and evening hours possible. A second weather hazard will be the building heat wave across the region. Monday will feel hot, with highs in the mid 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s higher elevations. Heat index will reach the upper 90s, with few spots reaching 100 degrees across the lowlands, requiring a heat advisory for some areas on Monday. Since it may be a long stretch of heat through the end of the week, will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Monday through Friday, transitioning into advisory or warning depending on weather conditions. As humidity and heat increases Tuesday, heat index values exceeding 100 will be more widespread, requiring continuation or upgrades of heat headlines Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are projected to climb towards record highs at some locations. Please see the climate section below for more details. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... Key Point: * Hot weather continues into the second half of the work week. High pressure remains in control Wednesday night through the end of the week, remaining mainly dry and hot. Afternoon convection cannot be entirely rule out due to increasing moisture and heat. However confidence is low due to high pressure at the surface and aloft, so will keep the area dry for now. Mid to late week highs are currently forecast to approach or even exceed record high temperatures at some of the climate sites. Please see the climate section below for more details. As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... VFR conditions and calm winds or gentle breezes are expected through the TAF period. A few gusts in the mountains could be up to 15 knots or so this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/16/24 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... As of 200 AM Sunday... A prolonged heat wave builds Sunday through next week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Sunday, June 16 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values. Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Sunday, 6/16 | Monday, 6/17 | Tuesday, 6/18 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 94 / 97 (1952) | 94 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | HTS | 96 / 97 (1952) | 96 /100 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) | CKB | 91 / 95 (2022) | 95 / 96 (1967) | 95 / 96 (1936) | PKB | 92 / 97 (1952) | 96 / 98 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) | BKW | 86 / 93 (1952) | 88 / 93 (1936) | 89 / 93 (1936) | EKN | 88 / 93 (1952) | 91 / 92 (1936) | 93 / 91 (1994) | -------------------------------------------------------- Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 | Friday, 6/21 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 96 / 98 (1919) | 96 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) | HTS | 96 / 98 (1994) | 98 /100 (1931) | 99 / 99 (1953) | CKB | 96 / 94 (1994) | 96 / 94 (1931) | 95 / 98 (1953) | PKB | 96 / 95 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) | BKW | 89 / 90 (1944) | 89 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1953) | EKN | 94 / 89 (1905) | 93 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) | -------------------------------------------------------- Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records. Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 97 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 99 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 96 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 90 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 94 | 96 (2012) | ----------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521. OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...FK CLIMATE...