Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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328 FXUS61 KRNK 271030 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 630 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will slowly track south through the Mid Atlantic and Carolina states through Friday and result in showers and perhaps thunderstorms through Friday. Another front with thunderstorms comes across the region Saturday and Sunday. The humidity will remain high through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Thursday... Frontal boundary is slowly making progress through the area this morning. Still some widely scattered showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms across the Virginia Piedmont. Showers and thunderstorm activity should continue to decrease through daybreak. Mostly dry through late morning and into early afternoon. The front will be slow to move through and guidance now indicating it may only make it to the vicinity of the VA/NC before stalling tonight. Could see scattered showers and storms again within the vicinity of the front this afternoon through early Friday. Best chance would be along and south of the VA/NC border, but some weak convergence is noted as far north as Lynchburg tonight. With that in mind, have kept a slight chance of showers/storms through tonight and into early Friday for the aforementioned areas. Heating today will be dependent on how much clearing occurs behind the front, but with a slower progression of the front, think clouds will hang a bit longer so did tone back the afternoon highs a couple degrees areawide. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is increasing for chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially for the weekend. 2) Temperatures will gradually climb between Friday and Sunday. The flow should turn from the east to the southeast on Friday as high pressure moves offshore. The resulting moisture convergence and upslope against the Blue Ridge should spark scattered showers and thunderstorms during Friday afternoon. The heat and humidity will gradually climb on Saturday as the wind swings to the south due to a cold front entering the Ohio River Valley. The increased instability will fire more widespread convection for Saturday afternoon. Strong thunderstorms may be possible along and west of the Blue Ridge. By Sunday, the cold front will reach the Appalachian Mountains to trigger more showers and thunderstorms. Any stronger storms will likely develop across the North Carolina and Virginia border where instability should be greater. Heat indices may reach between 95 and 100 degrees along and east of a line from Danville to Lynchburg before the storms arrive as temperatures rise into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. A northwest flow after the frontal passage will provide drier and cooler air during Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is increasing for drier weather to persist through Monday and Tuesday. 2) Temperatures drop a little for Monday and Tuesday but start rising again by Wednesday. As a cold front exits the East Coast on Monday, high pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic. The models continue to trend drier for Monday and Tuesday, so any chances of rain during these two days have been eliminated from the forecast. It will be a little cooler to start the work week with highs reaching the 70s and 80s and lows dipping into the 50s and 60s. Eventually, high pressure should move offshore on Wednesday, which will turn the wind towards the south and advect warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico. Another cold front should approach the Ohio River Valley by late Wednesday, so chances of showers and thunderstorms may return in the mountains. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... Frontal boundary is still slowly progressing through the region and as such, still contending with showers across the southern Blue Ridge. Should see coverage of showers taper through the morning. Pockets of patchy fog will lead to areas of LIFR vsby/cigs for an hour or so past just past 12z. Main concern for fog will be at LWB and BCB. Fog dissipates by 9am. Front will stall later today along the VA/NC border and another round of showers and storms will be possible through the latter portions of the valid 24hr TAF period. However, confidence is not great enough to add within the TAFs. Patchy fog is possible again tonight in the valleys. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon through Friday. A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight conditions, is expected along and ahead of a cold front on Saturday and Sunday. Monday is expected to be drier and VFR, with a majority of the showers and thunderstorms south of the region. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG