576
FXUS61 KRNK 131725
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
125 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front
tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure
works in again for the weekend. Temperatures remain several
degrees above normal each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 116 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and more humid today and Friday. Isolated storms
possible.

Humidity starting to creep up as are temperatures, but still
close to normal for mid June. 12z RNK sounding continues to
show moisture in the 850-700 layer evidenced by scattered to
broken clouds at that level. PWATS have closed in on an inch.
Forecast soundings showing temperatures warming enough to break
the cap. A shortwave tracking across the Ohio Valley should
reach the mountains by late afternoon. Appears enough low level
moisture convergence and differential heating to produce
isolated showers and storms. High-res models vary with little to
none on some and more coverage on others. Looks like a case
where a few storms pop up this afternoon along/near the Blue
Ridge, then shift east into the foothills/piedmont by later in
the day. Again overall coverage is isolated so most stay dry and
warm with mostly to partly sunny skies.

Any showers/storms fade this evening leaving behind mostly clear
skies. Could have some fog in the valleys across our mountain
counties overnight into dawn.

Friday, a front tracks southeast toward the area, with the 5h
pattern suggest weak forcing. At the moment, the models in
general agreement in meager storm chances so kept pops on the
low side, with widely scattered coverage by late afternoon over
the mountains/foothills. A little more west/northwest flow
should allow temperatures to creep up to around 90 in Piedmont
and Roanoke/Southern Shenandoah Valleys, with 80s in the
mountains, which for most will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Confidence in the near term is high, except on storm
coverage/pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message: Warm and mostly dry weather expected.

Front jumps to the surface trough in the piedmont during the
evening. Shower activity will follow the same pattern, falling
part moving over the mountains, shadowing the foothills and then
redevelop in the piedmont. Showers in the piedmont will track
into central North Carolina around midnight. High pressure will
wedge south into the Carolinas on Saturday and linger into
Sunday. No rain is expected this weekend.

Cool northeasterly flow will be offset by dry air and abundant
sunshine this weekend. High temperatures will range from the
upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge to mid to upper 80s
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

Key Messages:

1) Hot and humid next week
2) Showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening

A ridge of high pressure is expected to drift over the area
Monday and Tuesday then move north of the area Wednesday and
Thursday. This system will bring above normal temperatures and
increase humidity through much of next week. High temperatures
each afternoon will range in the mid to upper 80s across the
mountains and low to mid 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Heat
indices values may be 3F to 6F warmer than the actual surface
temperatures. Diurnal thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon. Storms will likely start over the mountains in the
afternoon then drift into the foothills and piedmont during the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 122 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. This
afternoon we may see isolated showers/storms mainly at
KBCB/KROA, so have VCSH and VCTS briefly based on radar/high res
model trends. Winds will be mainly out of the south to southwest
under 10kts. Fog at LWB and perhaps BCB late tonight down to IFR
especially if it rains nearby or at the site.

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through Monday. Exceptions...chance of storms
Friday afternoon and evening that may bring sub-VFR, especially
for BLF/LWB. In addition, morning fog will be possible in
mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/WP