619
FXUS61 KRNK 171836
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
236 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Some scattered shower and storm development will continue into
this evening mainly in the mountains. Otherwise, high pressure
will cover the region through the end of the week. This will
result in unseasonably warm temperatures and a limited chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Warm and humid this afternoon with some scattered showers and
  thunderstorms mainly across the mountains.

- Potential exists for locally heavy rain where showers and
  storms do occur.

- Less activity and more confined to the north for Tuesday.

Some expected convective triggering has initiated as thought in
the last few hours mainly across the mountains. Storm motion so
far has mainly been slow to meandering a bit clockwise near the
northern extent of the upper ridge center. With relatively high
PWATs near or a bit above 1.5 inches, storm development will
have the main threats of localized heavy rainfall and some
strong downdraft winds due to hydrometeor loading and increased
precip efficiency. CAM consensus so far was pretty accurate with
the onset of activity and it should largely wane by sunset this
evening.

For tonight, any locations that receive precip late this
afternoon into evening could have some patchy fog development
due to increase low level moisture.

Tuesday should have less shower/storm coverage and more confined
to the northern CWA as the moisture axis looks to shift due to
the parent upper ridge having some strengthening and a bit more
NW slight progression.

Max temps Tuesday could bump up a degree or so higher than what
was forecast this afternoon especially with perhaps less cu
field/storm potential and coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Confidence is high for conditions to become hot and dry as this
week progresses.

Surface high pressure situated well offshore will provide a
southeasterly flow across the Mid Atlantic throughout this forecast
period. Meanwhile, an impressive upper level ridge will maintain
control over the East Coast and suppress any chances of rain.
Temperatures should slowly trend upward during this time with
afternoon highs reaching the 80s for most locations along and west
of the Blue Ridge and the lower 90s across the Piedmont. While the
hottest air stays to the north by Thursday, it will still feel like
summer has arrived. Make sure to have plenty of fluids, sunscreen,
and ways to stay cool as it becomes hotter by the end of this
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and dry weather on Friday.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms should increase during
the weekend and into Monday.

Friday and Saturday will mark the peak of this heat wave across the
Mid Atlantic as an upper level ridge maintains control. Heat indices
could reach the mid to upper 90s along and east of a line from
Danville to Lynchburg. An upper level trough will enter the northern
Plains on Friday and approach the Great Lakes during the upcoming
weekend. The ridge should begin to weaken, which would allow for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches the Appalachian Mountains. While there is still notable
model uncertainty at this point, the cold front appears to arrive
sometime during Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

Some scattered SHRA/TSRA near the mountain sites this afternoon
that could bring some VRB gusts and reduced VSBYs, otherwise
mainly cu field in 3500-5000 ft range. Precip should diminish
close to sunset then could have some lingering alto/cirrus into
tonight. Patchy MVFR cigs or reduced vsbys from fog could occur
Tuesday morning, but not confident in location. KLWB could have
the greater chance for lower cigs/vsbys (possibly LIFR).

Less chance of showers/storms Tuesday and more confined to the
north so left mention out of TAFs. Could have FEW/SCT cu field
during the day near 3500-5000 ft again.

Winds mainly light and VRB this afternoon except for possible
gusts from storms. Overnight winds mainly calm, then Tuesday
should be SE 5-7 kts.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will cover the region this week. Aside from some
morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are
expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be low through Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF/AB