880
FXUS61 KRNK 270642
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will slowly track south through the Mid Atlantic
and Carolina states through Friday and result in showers and
perhaps thunderstorms through Friday. Another front with
thunderstorms comes across the region Saturday and Sunday. The
humidity will remain high through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Frontal boundary is slowly making progress through the area this
morning. Still some widely scattered showers and even a few
isolated thunderstorms across the Virginia Piedmont. Showers and
thunderstorm activity should continue to decrease through
daybreak. Mostly dry through late morning and into early
afternoon.

The front will be slow to move through and guidance now
indicating it may only make it to the vicinity of the VA/NC
before stalling tonight. Could see scattered showers and storms
again within the vicinity of the front this afternoon through
early Friday. Best chance would be along and south of the VA/NC
border, but some weak convergence is noted as far north as
Lynchburg tonight. With that in mind, have kept a slight chance
of showers/storms through tonight and into early Friday for the
aforementioned areas.

Heating today will be dependent on how much clearing occurs
behind the front, but with a slower progression of the front,
think clouds will hang a bit longer so did tone back the
afternoon highs a couple degrees areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing for chances of showers and thunderstorms
each day, especially for the weekend.

2) Temperatures will gradually climb between Friday and Sunday.

The flow should turn from the east to the southeast on Friday as
high pressure moves offshore. The resulting moisture convergence and
upslope against the Blue Ridge should spark scattered showers and
thunderstorms during Friday afternoon. The heat and humidity will
gradually climb on Saturday as the wind swings to the south due to a
cold front entering the Ohio River Valley. The increased instability
will fire more widespread convection for Saturday afternoon. Strong
thunderstorms may be possible along and west of the Blue Ridge.

By Sunday, the cold front will reach the Appalachian Mountains to
trigger more showers and thunderstorms. Any stronger storms will
likely develop across the North Carolina and Virginia border where
instability should be greater. Heat indices may reach between 95 and
100 degrees along and east of a line from Danville to Lynchburg
before the storms arrive as temperatures rise into the lower 90s
with dewpoints in the lower 70s. A northwest flow after the frontal
passage will provide drier and cooler air during Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing for drier weather to persist through
Monday and Tuesday.

2) Temperatures drop a little for Monday and Tuesday but start
rising again by Wednesday.

As a cold front exits the East Coast on Monday, high pressure will
build across the Mid Atlantic. The models continue to trend drier
for Monday and Tuesday, so any chances of rain during these two days
have been eliminated from the forecast. It will be a little cooler
to start the work week with highs reaching the 70s and 80s and lows
dipping into the 50s and 60s. Eventually, high pressure should move
offshore on Wednesday, which will turn the wind towards the south
and advect warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico. Another
cold front should approach the Ohio River Valley by late Wednesday,
so chances of showers and thunderstorms may return in the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Frontal boundary is still slowly progressing through the region
and as such, still contending with showers and isolated
thunderstorms this morning. Coverage of precipitation will
lessen through daybreak and should be mostly VFR after sunrise.

Pockets of patchy fog will develop and could lead to areas of
LIFR vsby/cigs for a few hours just before sunrise. Main
concern for fog will be at LWB and BCB.

Front will stall later today along the VA/NC border and another
round of showers and storms will be possible through the latter
portions of the valid 24hr TAF period. However, confidence is
not great enough to add within the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again each
afternoon through Friday.

A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight
conditions, is expected along and ahead of a cold front on
Saturday and Sunday.

Monday is expected to be drier and VFR, with a majority of the
showers and thunderstorms south of the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG