010
FXUS63 KSGF 291743
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect today with Heat Index values of 100
  to 110.

- Strong to severe storm chances again this evening with a
  Slight Risk for severe winds and isolated hail.

- Hot and rainy next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Convection is currently making its way through out northernmost
counties this morning. We issued one Severe Thunderstorm Warning in
Benton county, but this activity has largely remained sub-severe and
is expected to continue to as it sweeps east. The only potential
remaining hazards with this system are low-end wind damage (40-50
mph) and the risk of flooding as the rain trails over the same areas
moving from west to east. Radar estimates are showing up to 2" has
fallen on the western border of the CWA, tapering off to the east
where precipitation is ongoing. We will be keeping an eye on St.
Claire, Benton, and Hickory counties as well as counties to the east
for the potential for flooding throughout the night. Amendment, as
of 2 a.m.: a Flash Flood Warning has been issued for northern
St. Claire county.

As we head into the day Saturday, southerly flow and mostly clear
skies will allow us to warm up quite a bit. We`ve issued a Heat
Advisory for the whole CWA from 11 a.m. until 8 p.m. because of
expected Heat Index values of 100 to 105. There is a gradient with
the hottest temperatures in the south, but everywhere will feel icky.

Storm chances return this evening as a low to the southwest joins
forces with the residual troughing from the low passing to the far
northeast and a cold front swings through. There is some low-end
severe potential with this activity in the form of gusty winds and
hail, but moreso wind. Coverage is also expected to be pretty sparse
(isolated to widely scattered), resulting in PoPs largely less than
50% through the evening and overnight.

Rain gradually ends in the south throughout the morning Sunday.
Thanks to the frontal passage, Sunday will be "cooler" with more
normal highs in the 80s. Get out and enjoy this weather, folks! It
will be short-lived.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Who could`ve guessed it: high pressure and intense ridging are back
to start the week, and with it the heat. Monday won`t be too bad for
most, with those in the east only feeling temperatures in the low
80s, but those in the west nearing Heat Index values of 100. Tuesday
will be worse, with widespread Heat Index values up to 105 and
patchy areas up to 110. Heat headlines may be needed.

The next chance for rain looks to be Tuesday night as a deep low
pressure system swings a cold front through the Ozarks. Long term
models are showing that this front becomes stationary and lays west-
to-east across the area, allowing rain to continue through
Wednesday. A second upper-level low pressure system looks to move
through pretty quickly behind the first, trading off one cold front
for another on Thursday morning. As of now, rain chances last all
through the 7 day period. We`ll have to see how that actually plays
out.

Despite the rain chances, heat hangs on through at least Thursday
with HI values over 100 every day. This seems to be possible, in my
opinion, due to the degree of separation between our area and the
pressure centers. The low pressure systems are way the heck in
Canada, and the troughing just barely manages to extend south
far enough to bring lift for rain. Unfortunately, we`re not able
to experience very robust troughing, and upper-level flow
remains almost zonal. Therefore, in a stroke of unluckiness,
we`re looking at both wet humid weather and very high
temperatures. Yay.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The region is in the warm and moist air ahead of a cold front
that was north of the area this afternoon. Some lingering clouds
remained from showers and storms last night. As the front
approaches the region, showers and storms are expected to
develop this evening, around the 23-01z timeframe. Where stoms
occur, flight conditions will deteriorate quickly becoming MVFR
to IFR.

The fromnt should be south of the Ozarks by early Sunday
morning. However, lingering low (MVFR to low end VFR) ceilings
will remain behind the front into Sunday afternoon.

Surface winds will shift from southerly to northerly this
evening into the morning as the front progresses south through
the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Nelson