Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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071 FXUS63 KSGF 181957 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 257 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week (mid to upper 80s). - Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential early to mid next week, with the highest chances on Tuesday night. - Unsettled weather may persist through late next week into Memorial Day Weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ ... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Late spring Chamber of Commerce weather to continue through tomorrow as an approaching cold front stalls and retreats northward overnight. Weak lift with limited moisture will keep storm potential to the west and north in the vicinity of the front. Winds that will be initially variable will return southerly while upper heights climb as a southwest to northeast orientated ridge builds overhead, pushing high temperatures on Sunday into the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/ ... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Unsettled weather to make a return next week starting Sunday night into Monday as a series of storms dig into the western US then progress across the nation. Medium range models are showing reasonably good agreement in bringing a modest wave under the developing western trough and across the central Plains early Sunday. Precipital water will slowly increase taking a "hard way" trajectory from the western Gulf through Texas across central Oklahoma into Kansas before curling in time into Missouri. As a result, models have trended northward with precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday along the low level convergence provided by the front west and north of the forecast area as the front becomes disconnected to the upper wave exiting into the Great Lakes. Attention then turns to a more significant storm system that will cross the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. As with several past systems this spring, the associated upper wave will take on a negative tilt as it moves across Nebraska into Iowa. Models have trended slower, potentially making this a nocturnal event. With the Gulf now open instability will be favorable with kinematics pointing toward organized severe convection, though at this time anticipate the better low level shear to be found north of the forecast area within the SPC Enhanced region. Several additional waves are then suggested later in the workweek, and potentially into the Holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR sky conditions to prevail through the TAF period despite a weakening cold front that will stall overnight. This will result in variable weak winds. Light fog is expected to develop south of I-44 and mainly east of Highway 65 later tonight into early Sunday. Visibilities will drop to the MVFR over south central MO and possibly into the KBBG area. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Record High Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964 May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 71/1902 May 21: KSGF: 70/1902 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Runnels CLIMATE...Burchfield