289
FXUS63 KSGF 170520
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for a couple strong to marginally severe storms
  near and southeast of West Plains this afternoon/evening.

- Decreasing chances for widespread rain on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early
  next week with near record temperatures Monday.

- Monitor for active weather in the early to middle part of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The forecast for this afternoon and evening has been tricky
given morning MCV activity that moved through, leaving lingering
cloud cover, and addition widespread strong to severe convection
that has been occurring over Texas. The Texas convection has
resulted in small waves of energy that have been difficult for
models to properly resolve, including a couple of MCVs over
southeastern Oklahoma.

What does this mean for our area? Reduced chances for showers
and storms across most of the area this evening, with isolated
to scattered convection still possible. The severe threat has
shifted southeast from the original area, with the primary
concern for a couple strong to marginally severe storms being
near and southeast of West Plains. That area has seen plenty of
sunshine today and temperatures are near 80. MLCAPE in the
warmer are are around 1,000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 30-35
kts. Primarily severe risks are 1 inch hail and 50-60 mph winds.

Tonight may see additional rounds of showers and non-severe
thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern CWA.

For Friday, models have backed off of precip chances and
amounts. Greatest precip chances are southeast of I-44 at
30-50%, but if the trend continues those may still be too high.
Look for highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A warming trend starts this weekend with highs forecast to be
in the 80s starting Saturday. Could see mid to upper 80s for
highs Sunday into Tuesday, but that will be dependent on any
convection and resulting cloud cover as models hint at storms
west of and maybe into the CWA.

Attention then turns to potential for severe weather in the
Tuesday to Tuesday night time period as models show a strong
cold front moving through the region. CIPS analogs and CSU
Machine Learning both highlight potential for severe weather,
though the finer details will be better resolved over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers continue to the east of the TAF sites overnight. VFR
flight conditions through tonight, before patchy fog settles
into the area early this morning. A period of reduced
visibilities and flight conditions to MVFR, especially at KBBG.
By the early afternoon, isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms develop across southern Missouri. Confidence is
low at the extent of coverage and is being represented by a
PROB30 group at KBBG.

Winds remain light and variable through this morning, becoming
predominately southeasterly on Friday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Burchfield