Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
372 FXUS63 KSGF 252331 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8 PM today. Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s with Heat Index values between 100 to 105. - Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s through this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into the 100s. - Scattered thunderstorm chances tonight into Wednesday, with highest chances (50 to 80%) after midnight. Slight risk for severe weather for the majority of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 We have 3,000-4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area this afternoon as weak shortwave energy passes through, which will result in isolated pop-up showers and storms into this evening. Shear is very weak, so storms will be pulsey and disorganized. No severe weather is expected with this convection. Heat is obviously an issue this afternoon with temperatures in the mid 90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s as of 2pm, resulting in heat index values Additional, potentially severe, convection is then likely tonight. Storms are expected to develop across western Iowa, then grow upscale and move southward through the night. Additional storms may develop ahead of the complex. The main concern is with the MCS activity, where a damaging wind threat of 60-70mph is the primary concern. This may linger in the morning hours on Wednesday, but models vary by a few hours on timing, placement, and strength, which limits confidence in specific details. Highs on Wednesday should be cooler with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s currently expected, but that will be highly dependent on convective evolution. Could be cooler or warmer if precip/cloud stick around longer or dissipate more quickly. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Thursday will be another "cooler" day with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, but heat builds back in on Friday. Friday highs are forecast to range from the low to upper 90s with max heat index values from the upper 90s to around 105. We see a return of area-wide PoPs Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front may move through. There severe weather potential is not clear right now, but does not appear to be too great. Look for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Saturday, which may change if the timing of the front and convection changes. Sunday should be cooler with highs in the 80s and 20-40% chances for precip. The repetitive cycle of jumping right back to heat continues early next week with highs in the 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Could see a need for more heat advisories if this verifies. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected this evening through the overnight hours with southerly winds. There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms this evening however higher chances still look to move in after 09z however given the uncertainty have kept prob30 groups in for now. As confidence in timing increases we will then include tempo groups. Low level wind shear is possible at SGF and JLN. Winds then turn more northwesterly for Wednesday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Burchfield