Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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235 FXUS63 KSGF 271752 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly less hot today. Hot again Friday/Saturday and slightly cooler Sunday. - 15-30% chance of showers across the north tonight; most stay dry. - Larger-scale system bringing widespread precipitation chances up to 50% Friday night through Sunday morning. - Humid heat returns next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 With the frontal system that brought us storms yesterday pushed off to the southeast, we`re now experiencing an inverted ridge at the surface and increasingly zonal flow aloft. This will make for a calm day with light winds that turn clockwise as surface high pressure to the northeast moves east. It will be mostly sunny today, but clouds gradually build in ahead of a surface low pressure center to the northwest as it moves closer. We`ll be a bit "cooler" today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with similar Heat Index values due to moisture in the region getting advected away toward the low pressure in the west. Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, some prefrontal shortwave energy may allow for some storms to fire in the far western and northern portions of the CWA. The Storm Prediction Center has included our SE KS counties and Vernon county in a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms. There is a Slight risk (2/5) directly to our west in Kansas, and the expectation is that multicells/transient supercells out that way will be capable of damaging winds and hail but will struggle to persist this far east due to capping and lack of upper-level support. PoPs for this activity remain below 40%, and the vast majority are expected to remain dry. Lows tonight largely in the 60s will be welcomed as a slight respite from the heat and warm lows we have been experiencing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Upper-level ridging builds back in into the weekend, though it remains quite zonal over the Ozarks, and pockets of upper-level vorticity will help to support surface low pressure moving in from the west. This combination will allow for both warming temperatures and rain chances into the weekend. Heat Index values will be back on the rise Friday and Saturday, rising to around 100 Friday and up to 110 Saturday for those south of I-44. The need for a Heat Advisory will be evaluated as confidence increases. As the upper-level ridge(ish) pattern moves east and the deep low pressure center moves by, a cooler airmass will be ushered in as the Ozarks lie in the surface trough region. Highs Sunday will top out in the 80s, which makes it the coolest day we have had in the forecast for a while. As the system moves through, we`re looking at widespread rain potential beginning Friday night and ending Sunday morning. Areas north of I-44 are included in an SPC Marginal risk Friday, underlining that a few of these storms could be strong. PoPs largely remain under 50% for the duration of the event, however; showers and storms may be spotty. Long term model ensembles are predicting strong ridging and the return of oppressive heat next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure over the region will bring VFR flight conditions through tonight into Friday. There is good confidence in limited impacts from cloud cover with scattered to broken ceilings at or above 25kft. Surface winds will become more southeasterly and gusty by late Friday morning. An isolated storm may be possible across western portions of the Ozarks through the next 24 hours, mainly impacting the KJLN area. Confidence is low (~10%) but will be watch heading into tonight and Friday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Hatch