Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
387 FXUS66 KSGX 162012 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 112 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Near to slightly below average temperatures will occur through the middle of the week as a trough of low pressure stays over the western portion of the country. This will also bring breezy conditions to the mountains and deserts along with greater cloud coverage west of the mountains. High pressure will reemerge later this week, leading to above average temperatures for areas away from the coast once again. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A deepening trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will influence our weather pattern through the middle of the week. Across Southern California, a coastal eddy continues to spin across the California Bight, keeping skies more gray near the city of San Diego beaches. We can expect clouds to begin to push back inland later this afternoon and evening for most areas within 25 miles of the beaches. Breezy winds can be expected this afternoon across the mountains and deserts, with higher winds on Monday as the trough axis crosses over the West Coast. Winds will not be entirely strong, but there is a 50-70% chance in seeing winds over 30 MPH on Monday, slightly less chance later today. Winds will become lighter by Tuesday morning through the week. Though the trough axis pushes east into the Northern Plains by the middle of the week, the troughing pattern will persist across the West. This is due to an amplified ridge that will build in across the eastern part of the country this week, where an impactful heat wave is expected from Cleveland to Boston with humid highs well into the 90s to near 100 degrees. While the heat turns up across the East, temperatures will be near to slightly below average here in Southern California. The marine layer will also be deeper, leading to greater low cloud coverage each night and morning for areas near and adjacent to the coast and locally into the Inland Empire. Minor day to day changes are expected in the weather pattern per latest model ensembles Tuesday through Thursday. The trough will weaken by Friday as high pressure expands into the desert southwest per latest cluster model guidance. Confidence is moderate to high that this will bring more warmer weather Friday into the weekend. NBM guidance shows not too much spread in ensembles, so this guidance is agreeable. Highs will start to climb near 5 to 10 degrees again by next weekend with a shallower marine layer. && .AVIATION... 161915Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN with bases near 1500 FT MSL across far southern San Diego County. Otherwise, SKC through this afternoon. Low clouds redeveloping and moving inland after 00z Mon with bases 1500-2000 FT MSL. Mountains/Deserts...SKC with unrestricted VIS through tonight. W-SW wind gusts of 20-35 knots, strongest this afternoon through late tonight. WK-MOD up/downdrafts over/E of mtns. && .MARINE... Northwest wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible in the outer waters this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. && .BEACHES... A combination of a west swell of around 5 feet/9 seconds in the outer waters and south swells of around 2 feet/16 seconds on Monday will bring surf of 3-6 feet along with a high rip current risk through Monday. The surf and rip current risk will gradually lower on Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...EA