Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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707 FXUS64 KSHV 261827 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 127 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Quite a few changes needed to the forecast this morning, as an expansive MCS that originated over NE OK/SW MO/NW AR early this morning that intensified some as it has tapped diurnal heating across extreme SE OK/Wrn AR. Only the HRRR has initialized well on the current convection, as the other hi-res progs are much too slow with the convection development and its spread through the region late this morning through the afternoon. This convection has largely been driven along a weak shortwave trough sliding SE along the Ern periphery of the upper ridging centered over Srn NM just W of ELP, in an area of slightly stronger 0-6km shear of 30-40kts. The latest mesoanalysis depicts the shear dropping off farther S into NE TX/Srn AR (but a bit stronger along its Wrn flank over NCntrl TX), although it is encountering stronger heating and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s which has resulted in SBCapes of 3000-3500 J/kg. Thus, the HRRR`s solution in maintaining convection as it shifts S through the region this afternoon seems justified, with the potential for strong to at time severe convection possible with damaging winds the primary threat. Have updated the forecast to increase pops significantly to likely over much of the region, with high chance pops across the Srn sections of Deep E TX into Cntrl LA. This MCS has also generated a strong cold pool in its wake, with temps having fallen into the upper 60s/lower 70s, which should translate S through the area during the afternoon. Thus, have cancelled the Heat Advisory for Red River County Texas, McCurtain County OK, and the northern sections of SW AR as these storms currently or shortly bear down over these areas. Farther S, very limited mixing and strong heating should result in at least a brief period of enhanced Heat Risk before the storms arrive, with heat indices ranging from 105-109 degrees. Have left the Advisory as is elsewhere although this will likely be trimmed back/cancelled early with the passage of the convection. Have also lowered max temps across the Nrn zones this afternoon, although some recovery is expected once the rains end by early afternoon. Did lower temps a tad even farther S, given the imminent arrival of the convection, as well as the extensive stratocu cigs along/S of I-20. Thank you WFO LZK for coordination this morning. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Drier conditions will return Friday and Saturday, as the center of the upper ridge moves back over the region. Additional heat products will be likely, as afternoon highs will return into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Upper ridging will remain in place on Sunday and Monday, but the center of the ridge will slide westward over North Texas. Long range models are suggesting there could be enough weakness over the region for some widespread convection to develop with daytime heating. But, these chances look to diminish as we move into the middle portions of next week, as the center of the ridge shifts back over the region. Despite the rain chances, it still looks like hot and humid conditions will continue. Additional heat products will be likely with afternoon highs remaining in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, near Squall line affecting I-30 earlier is now moving into our I-20 corridor with N-NW wind gusts to around 50-55KT expected with heavy rainfall dropping the vsby to less than a mile for a bit. Computer models are content with this one and done as a weak cool front sags across the Natural State. We may see some light BR around daybreak as skies become fair this evening. Some indication of MVFR cigs too, 09-15Z. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 77 95 78 / 60 40 20 10 MLU 97 73 92 74 / 60 50 30 0 DEQ 92 73 93 72 / 80 30 10 0 TXK 95 75 95 76 / 60 40 10 0 ELD 94 71 91 72 / 60 30 10 0 TYR 95 77 97 78 / 40 30 10 0 GGG 95 76 95 77 / 60 30 10 0 LFK 96 77 95 76 / 40 30 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...24