Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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263 FXUS64 KSHV 200531 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A relaxed pressure gradient from a surface high across the east coast extending across the Deep South to maintain light winds tonight. An upper-level ridge prevailing areawide to maintain stable conditions. Expect mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the lower 70s. Current forecast is on track, no updated needed at this time. /05/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The current synoptic pattern is characterized by a strengthening upper-level ridge axis across the Texas Big Bend region and along Rio Grande Valley extending northward into the Southern Plains. This ridge will be the dominant feature through this short-term period and beyond, driving temperatures even higher on Friday with mid 90s expected across the vast majority of the region. Much like today, heat index values will exceed 100 degrees over much of the region during afternoon peak heating but should remain just below our heat advisory thresholds, although cannot completely rule out brief periods where criteria is reached in our southernmost zones across East Texas and North Louisiana. Overnight low temperatures will largely range through the lower to mid 70s aside from some isolated upper 60s across a few of our northernmost locations. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The late summer heat will continue on into the weekend even as we welcome the first day of autumn on Sunday. Expect lower to mid 90s for highs both Saturday and Sunday with the upper-level ridge axis still anchored across the region while a trough begins to dig from the Rockies eastward into the western Great Plains late on Sunday into early next week. The trough will help to nudge a cold front southward into the I-30 corridor late Monday into early Tuesday. Unfortunately, confidence isn`t particularly high on this front moving much farther south on Tuesday before stalling out. At a minimum, the front will serve as a focus for isolated convection so have held on to low-end PoPs areawide on Tuesday and through Wednesday given the continued uncertainty with respect to this frontal boundary and how much progression it will make into the region by the middle of next week. /19/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 For the 20/06z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some high clouds across southern Arkansas and northeast Louisiana tonight. Despite this, surface observations continue to spit out SKC for all of our terminals. Have mention of some SCT250 for much of the overnight hours for all terminals although I have a tempo group in for some lower visibility and BR for KMLU and KLFK between 20/10z to 20/13z. Otherwise, high clouds or SKC will prevail for the rest of the terminals through this period with generally light winds. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 76 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 94 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 95 70 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 97 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 95 70 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 96 74 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 95 73 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 95 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...33