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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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221 FXUS64 KSHV 150935 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Starry night with calm wind in most locales. Air temps are in the upper 60s and lower 70s, some near saturation with patchy fog. So far, the fog is in the 3-6mi range over portions of S AR and SE OK. We can expect a bit more formation until daybreak, but dense fog should remain very isolated. Our 88D`s VAD wind profiler is showing light SE flow 1-4kft and then Easterly above up to near H500, then light NW flow continues as the upper ridge builds over the MS River today and continues eastward. Ridge motion E has picked up a bit with a brisk short wave now over the plains lifting warm air into the Great Lakes states. We will be trending a little warmer in most cases in the short term. Some afternoon heat index calculations may see some triple digit values, but will be keeping on the low end with 101-104 and no need to mention in the zones. We should have a great afternoon the 33rd annual Shreveport Floatilla on Cross Lake with lots of sunshine, but light winds that will make for lots of swimmers. All of our Four-State area lakes and bayous will be fit for fun in the sun today, so remember the sunscreen in the great outdoors. Overnight, more stars for the fireworks display this evening and slightly warmer lows as our dew points tick upwards, as the upper ridge parks over the SE U.S. and forces the deeper Gulf moisture to focus inland for a quick road trip up I-49. This could be enough for some late day sea breeze activity late this weekend up across I-20 before sunset, and then quickly diminishing. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The GFS and NAM both get a little QPF into northern LA late on Father`s Day with another hot afternoon needing a cooling shower. Highs again on Sunday will range in the mid to upper 90s, but with a bit more wind still from the SE. Any amounts will be light and brief, but it is a start for the Easterlies pending dominance into the Summer season, which by the way, begins on Thursday afternoon at 3:50 p.m. CDT Monday still looks to see the best coverage for convection and to some extent Tuesday as well, before shifting farther westward into the Lone Star State. The upper ridge will build to 594dam over VA/NC for Monday, with lowering heights aloft all through the lower MS River Valley. And even a little weak spinner at 585dam approaching Houston for a wet Juneteenth across much of E TX, while MS and NE LA sport much less QPF/PWAT in the models. Little changes to get into midweek, but the 1024/25mb air mass behind the afore mentioned short wave will end up keeping well north and spinning up the upper ridge to 598dam on Tuesday in Wednesday for a little heat wave in the Nation`s Capitol and New England States for the Holiday proper. A good time for a day off for sure with most folks up that way not ready for such. This upper ridge will flatten and sink back across the Appalachians and keep us running our late week pattern with the sea breeze convection well under I-20 as our SE winds back to due E. As we continue to watch the Gulf, the GFS has been all over the place with a cyclone and now is content with a trip up our I-49 corridor next weekend. The NHC Tropical WX Outlook for the ATlantic, TWOAT is indicating 50/50 chance for this system through 7 days arriving in the Gulf. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 No major changes to the present TAF forecast as the airspace remains under the influence of upper ridging. VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace through the period as early morning SKC develops into an afternoon CU field, mainly sub FL100. Terminal winds will trend VRB through the morning, but a return to sfc southerlies will be ongoing through the period. By 00z, the aforementioned CU field should begin to dissipate, with a return to mostly SKC by the evening. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 97 77 95 76 / 0 0 10 20 MLU 96 75 96 74 / 0 0 10 10 DEQ 93 70 95 72 / 0 0 10 10 TXK 96 74 95 75 / 0 0 10 10 ELD 94 73 95 73 / 0 0 10 10 TYR 93 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 95 73 95 74 / 0 0 10 10 LFK 95 72 95 74 / 0 0 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...53