216
FXUS64 KSHV 151154
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
654 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine continues to meander
across northern Mississippi this morning. Due to its proximity,
wrap around low clouds on the backside of Francine continue to
move across our northern and eastern zones, which will play a role
in temperatures today. But, Francine isn`t the only system
affecting the weather this morning. Upper ridging has set-up just
to the west of the region across the Southern Plains. As a result,
a pseudo frontal boundary has develop across the areas on the
edge of the ridge and near the trough associated with Francine.
This boundary is located across our East Texas zones, generally
along a line from about Tyler Texas to San Augustine Texas.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed along this boundary over
the past few hours, and remain ongoing at this time. This
convection is expected to continue through the remainder of the
overnight period, and then diminish just after daybreak this
morning. The boundary should move just south of the region today,
but can`t rule out some isolated convection near the Lufkin area.
As far as the remainder of the region goes, the remnants of
Francine will start to shift slightly westward into Eastern
Arkansas today. This will allow for wrap around clouds to shift
westward as well, along with the rain chances associated with the
system. Generally speaking, the rain chances will be confined to
South-Central and Northeast Louisiana, which is essentially the
Ark-La-Miss region. Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid
80s over the Ark-La-Miss today due to Francine`s cloud cover. The
remainder of the region should see highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

Rain chances should diminish over the region tonight, although
some lingering wrap around showers could remain across our extreme
eastern Ark-La-Miss zones. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

By Monday, the remnants of Francine will continue to shift
westward into Central Arkansas. This will likely result in more
rain across the region, with chances extending as far west as the
Interstate 49 corridor. Expect cooler temps as well, with most
locations seeing highs in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The remnants of Francine will get absorb into a deepening trough
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as another
potential tropical cyclone moves into that region out of the
Carolinas. Clouds will still remain across a good chunk of the
region, with overnight lows once again falling into the upper 60s
and lower 70s. By Tuesday, the Southern Plains upper ridge will
build into the region and remain in place through the remainder of
the upcoming work week. Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions
during this period, with highs eventually returning into the low
to mid 90s, along with overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. The ridge will start to break down by next weekend,
allowing a large upper trough out of the Rockies to move into the
Plains. This trough will bring a cool front into the door step of
the region, along with a return in rain chances. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Isolated convection will be possible for the first couple of hours
of the TAF period across portions of East Texas south of
Interstate 20. However, additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across Southeast Arkansas and Northeast
Louisiana, possibly affecting KELD and KMLU, between
15/18z and 16/02z. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR ceilings and some patchy
fog will continue to develop and spread southward towards the
Interstate 20 corridor. Flight conditions should slowly improve
back into the VFR range by midday. However, more low clouds are
expected to bring MVFR/IFR flight conditions to all TAF sites late
in the period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  71  83  71 /   0   0  20   0
MLU  85  70  82  68 /  30  20  50  10
DEQ  85  67  84  65 /   0   0  20   0
TXK  86  69  84  68 /  10   0  20   0
ELD  83  67  80  65 /  30  10  50   0
TYR  91  69  88  70 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  89  68  85  68 /  10   0  10   0
LFK  89  70  88  69 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...09