909
FXUS64 KSHV 232322
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
622 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A cool front, currently located along a line from near
Jacksonville Texas to Prescott Arkansas, will continue to slowly push
eastward this afternoon into the region. However, upper ridging
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS will slow its
eastward progression, stalling the boundary across the region
tonight. There had been convection along the boundary all morning,
but it has diminished greatly in coverage and intensity over the
past few hours. But, additional development has started to fire
along the boundary, mainly across SW Arkansas. Ahead of the
boundary, an isolated shower or two can`t be ruled out. Although
it appears a pre-frontal trough has push through the region,
clearing the CU field and leaving behind mostly clear skies.

The front will bisect the region tonight as it stalls out. Some
additional showers or thunderstorms will be possible along the
boundary, but short-term models are keeping convection in more of
an isolated or broken manner. Expect the temperature gradient to
remain overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s along and north
of Interstate 30, and low to mid 70s over the remainder of the
area.

Models continue to suggest that the front will continue to hang
across the region tomorrow, maybe advancing to along a line from
Lufkin Texas to Monroe Louisiana. Slight to chance POPs will
remain over the region near the boundary. The expected cloud cover
and potential convection should yield slightly cooler temps, with
highs generally in the mid to upper 80s areawide. The front
should finally push through the region by tomorrow night, bringing
slightly cooler temps, with lows in the 60s areawide. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Another cool front is expected to move into the area on Wednesday,
bringing a return in widespread rain chances. Behind the front,
cooler and dry conditions will return, with lows Wednesday night
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. The forecast gets interesting
across the lower 48 on Thursday, as models continue to suggest
the arrival of a strong landfalling hurricane. The good news is
that a closed trough across the Ozarks will steer the storm away
from our area. Unfortunately, it looks like the state of Florida
will experience the main force of the system. As the storm moves
across Florida into the SE CONUS, models suggest it will undergo a
Fujiwara interaction with the aforementioned Ozarks trough.
Essentially, this means the remnants of the landfalling hurricane
will move in close proximity of the larger Ozarks trough, and then
try to circulate around it before it gets absorb forming a larger
closed trough. That newly formed larger trough will continue to
meander across the Ozarks region on Friday and Saturday, bringing
some wrap-around precip to the region and northerly flow. The
precip, cloud cover, and northerly winds should yield cooler
temperatures across the region during this period, with highs
struggling to reach the lower 80s. Upper ridging will start to
build into the SW CONUS late Saturday, pushing the closed trough
out of the region and bringing back dry conditions to the area
Sunday and into Monday of next week. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A cold front lingering across the region will allow for an
unsettled weather pattern across the region through the forecast
period ending 25/00Z. VCSH conditions will be possible across
TYR/GGG/SHV/MLU overnight along the front becoming VCTS on Monday
afternoon. Additionally, could see MVFR ceilings near daybreak
south of the front across LFK. Otherwise, light winds tonight to
become west to northwest around 7 knots on Tuesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  88  68  85 /  20  10  20  20
MLU  73  89  67  83 /  20  30  20  20
DEQ  63  86  61  83 /  20   0  30  20
TXK  68  87  65  83 /  20   0  20  20
ELD  69  86  64  81 /  30  20  10  20
TYR  69  89  67  84 /  20  10  20  20
GGG  69  88  66  83 /  20  10  20  20
LFK  72  88  67  86 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13