Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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654 FXUS64 KSHV 252303 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 603 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Heat Advisory criteria (heat indices of 105-110 degrees) has been met as of mid-afternoon over all but the Wrn sections of E TX, but this too should verify over the next couple of hours once temps top out in the mid to upper 90s. As expected, limited mixing though over Srn AR/NCntrl LA has maintained mid 70s dewpoints over these areas, as low level moisture pooling continues farther to the E across the Lower MS Valley along the W side of a stationary front that persists from the Mid-South region into NCntrl MS/SW and Srn Al. This has resulted in heat indices near 110 degrees over these areas, and may briefly reach Warning criteria before daytime heating diminishes late this afternoon. Will allow the Heat Advisory to ride as is for the entire region through 00Z Wednesday. All remains quiet too as the afternoon visible satellite has maintained a relatively flat cu field over the region. The exception has been over ECntrl LA/SCntrl AR where the cu is a bit more agitated, with isolated convection possible over these areas through 00Z before diminishing with the setting sun. Much if not all of the overnight hours should remain quiet across the region tonight, although the transition to NW flow aloft may yield some unsettled weather courtesy of shortwave energy progged to drop SE into the region late, along the Ern periphery of the upper ridge centered from the Desert SW into W TX. In fact, various short term progs suggest that convection will initiate by early evening over NW OK along the lead shortwave trough axis, but should gradually weaken through late evening with reduced forcing. However, the GFS is a lone outlier dropping a potential MCS SE into the region by and after daybreak Wednesday, maintaining the convection through much of the day. Not quite buying this solution yet given the lack of other model support, with the potentially more feasible compromise in solutions suggesting that convection will be later to develop over Nrn AR Wednesday morning along a weak sfc front and attendant shortwave trough that will drop SE through the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. Again, considerable timing variabilities exist with convection eventually building S into the region by afternoon, which could impede heating and potential Heat Advisory criteria being met again. After collaborating with adjacent WFO`s, have opted to defer the issuance of a Heat Advisory to the mid shift, as hopefully better model agreement will come into play with regards to the convection timing. Do believe that one will be needed for at least portions of E TX/N LA, but would rather avoid potentially flip flopping the forecast with the potential heat headlines. Did maintain chance pops though for Srn AR/N LA, which could linger during the evening before diminishing. This convection could reinforce the sfc bndry SSW into the area by Thursday, which would only result in additional moisture pooling over the region just as the upper ridge begins to expand back S into AR/LA by afternoon. Thus, heat products will likely be needed again areawide Thursday, with some consolation that isolated to scattered convection will remain possible near the stationary front. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Monday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The ridge aloft will continue expanding E across the Lower MS Valley Thursday night, but remain relatively flat before amplifying further this weekend into much of next week. Thus, the extreme heat is on as more expansive areas of triple digit temps are expected through the remainder of the long term period. Heat Headlines will be needed through the remainder of the period, with very limited relief expected at night as temps struggle to fall to/just below 80 degrees. Still can`t rule out the potential for isolated diurnal convection over portions of the area, but believe that wetting rains will be hard to come by and will do very little to the continued drying conditions in place. 15 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For the 26/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing some showers and thunderstorms moving through south central and central Arkansas this evening. Not anticipating any impacts at this time to KELD so I have left all mention out and will amend if needed. Otherwise some fair weather CU around 5k feet prevail for most of the region. Ultimately things should clear out for all terminals during the overnight hours with some low clouds moving in again towards morning. There is some potential for some MVFR conditions again tonight for KLFK. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 97 77 96 / 10 20 20 20 MLU 78 96 73 93 / 10 40 30 40 DEQ 75 95 73 93 / 10 40 20 10 TXK 80 98 75 96 / 10 30 20 10 ELD 75 94 71 91 / 10 40 30 20 TYR 79 97 77 98 / 0 20 20 10 GGG 78 96 77 96 / 0 20 20 20 LFK 76 96 77 97 / 0 20 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...33