Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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512 FXUS64 KSHV 251053 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 553 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Upper level ridging will continue to influence most of the region today, but the center of the ridge will shift westward into the Four Corners region of the country. This will put our Southern Arkansas and Louisiana zones on the eastern fringe of the ridge. There could be just enough weakness in these areas for daytime heating to initiate some isolated showers and thunderstorms. So, decided to add slight chance POPs in these areas. For the remainder of the area, a stray shower or two can`t be ruled out with daytime heating. However, despite the rain chances, expect another day of hot and humid temps, with highs ranging again from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory will remain in place through this evening. On Wednesday, the center of the ridge will remain across the Four Corners region. At the same time, the eastern periphery of the ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for northwesterly flow to develop over most of our area. This is where the forecast gets interesting. Most of the HREF models are suggesting that an MCS could develop across Oklahoma and dive south into the region during the morning hours. Later on in the day, progs are suggesting a cool front will try to backdoor into the region, bringing additional precip, before it stalls or washes out across our South-Central Arkansas and adjacent Louisiana zones. Because of the uncertainties with rain, decided to hold off on extending the current Heat Advisory at this time, although there is a decent chance afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s again. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Rain chances may linger across portions of the region Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning. However, it looks like drier conditions will try to return, as the upper ridge will try to reestablish itself over the region for the end of the work week into the first half of next weekend. Additional heat products could be issued, as afternoon highs will likely return into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Upper ridging will remain in place on Sunday into the first couple of days of the next work week, but long-range progs are depicting some precip underneath the ridge. Although my confidence is low on the rain chances, decided to leave slight POPS in the forecast, as there is some hint that the ridge could weaken some during this period. Regardless, it still looks like hot and humid conditions will continue, with afternoon highs remaining in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 80 99 78 / 10 10 20 30 MLU 100 78 97 74 / 20 20 40 40 DEQ 97 74 96 73 / 10 20 40 20 TXK 100 79 98 75 / 20 20 40 30 ELD 98 76 95 72 / 20 20 40 30 TYR 99 79 97 77 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 100 78 98 76 / 10 10 20 20 LFK 98 76 97 76 / 0 10 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...44