Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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013 FXUS64 KSHV 062006 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 306 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 This afternoon has yet proved less active than yesterday in terms of convection, and what storms may manage to develop across our southern zones should diminish quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Current projections suggest a respite from renewed development through the remainder of the night, with calming conditions and dropping temperatures allowing for more widespread development of fog in the pre-dawn hours. At this time coverage looks patchy enough to not require products, but any early commuters may wish to take caution. Lows will trend cooler tonight, reaching the upper 60s north and middle 70s south of the I-20 corridor. Tomorrow will follow the trend established by the past two days, with development of scattered convection late in the day, encompassing the southeastern half of the ArkLaTex at its peak and dissipating quickly after sundown. The last few days have demonstrated effective daytime heating in the morning and early afternoon before convection lights up, this following NBM guidance of middle 90s across the region Sunday afternoon. Overnight Sunday into Monday, we may see two areas of showers and storms begin to impact the Four State Region. From the southwest in the Lufkin area of deep east Texas, isolated showers with the possible embedded storm are possible as the tropical moisture nudged north in advance of Beryl begins to reach us. Meanwhile, a complex of storms will advance from the northwest, bringing impacts possibly towards the I-30 corridor in the predawn hours. Temperatures look to drop into the lower 70s north to upper 70s south by sunrise Monday. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The subtleties of how the incoming round of convection from the north will interact with the tropical moisture advancing from the south on Monday remains to be seen, but suffice to say a substantively rainy week is in store for the ArkLaTex. Rain chances look to begin by lunchtime Monday at the latest, continuing largely uninterrupted through at least late Wednesday or early Thursday. The bottom line for the ArkLaTex is that we are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Beryl, as the latest model runs continue to indicate an eastward shift in the track, arcing to the northeast upon its landfall, bringing impacts to the ArkLaTex early in the week. When combined with the existing moisture in the form of convection being stirred up by our pseudo-stationary boundary, this will bring with it the possibility of flash flooding across much of the Four State Region, especially east Texas and into north Louisiana and southern Arkansas, with the WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Monday and Tuesday including the majority of the region in a Slight Risk, and further upgrades are not out of the question. Flash flooding poses a more likely concern to the region than severe weather, but the latter still cannot be ruled out, contingent on the structure, organization and coverage expanse of Beryl as it treks northeastward. The latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center have Beryl at Tropical Depression intensity by the time it reaches the ArkLaTex, tracking the center of the cyclone across our region overnight Tuesday into the early hours Wednesday as it continues to lose its organization and gets picked up by the upper level trough over the Plains and Midwest. This troughing looks to remain very much in place due north as ridging over the Intermountain West and ridging over the Atlantic coast help hold it in place, continuing to deluge the ArkLaTex with daily chances for showers and storms through next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable throughout if not below average, with highs in the lower 90s possible only climbing into the upper 80s by the middle of next week, while lows remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s, with a possible drying and warming trend by the end of the workweek. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Aside from MVFR cigs across portions of Deep E TX early this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected through much if not all of the 06/18Z TAF period. Cu cigs have developed early this afternoon generally along and S of the I-20 corridor, but should eventually scatter out by mid to late afternoon, as slightly drier air continues to mix SW in wake of a weak sfc front that has settled S to the I-10 corridor of SE TX/S LA. Isolated convection can not be ruled out this afternoon over Cntrl LA and possibly portions of Deep E TX, but low confidence precludes mention in the LFK terminal attm, and thus have removed VCTS mention here. The cu field should mostly diminish around or shortly after 00Z Sunday, with areas of cirrus persisting overnight over Deep E TX/N LA/Srn AR. Some areas of stratocu may develop by or shortly before 12Z Sunday over portions of Deep E/ECntrl TX, but have only maintained IFR/low MVFR cigs at LFK, before a slow improvement in cigs commences by mid/late morning. A scattered cu field should develop by late morning/early afternoon elsewhere, as it spreads back N as the sfc front to our S washes out. ENE winds 5-8kts this afternoon will become Light SE or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 95 79 91 / 10 30 10 60 MLU 74 92 75 92 / 10 40 10 40 DEQ 68 93 70 88 / 0 10 20 60 TXK 72 96 75 92 / 0 20 20 60 ELD 70 93 74 91 / 0 30 10 50 TYR 75 95 76 89 / 0 20 10 70 GGG 74 95 76 89 / 0 20 10 60 LFK 74 95 76 87 / 20 40 20 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15