Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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143 FXUS64 KSHV 011750 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The current forecast is largely on track. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere continue to portray a ridge of high pressure lending to synoptic scale subsidence. Meanwhile, low levels continue to show abundant moisture and a weak boundary approaching the area from the northeast. Given these conditions, still think afternoon and evening convection will develop across the western 2/3rds of the CWA given some lift provided by the boundary amidst an unstable environment. The heat advisory will also remain in place as is, although areas in southwest Arkansas are still expected to be close to heat advisory criteria. BF/CK && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Upper-air analysis this morning is showing high pressure remaining over our area, generally centered across north central Texas and south central Oklahoma. The only appreciable change to this over the next few days will the center of it will wobble to and fro as it slowly shifts to the east. Meanwhile at the surface, a frontal boundary will remain stalled out across portions of the region today, generally from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Louisiana. This will cause a larger gradient in afternoon high temperatures. Behind the frontal boundary, highs will be in the lower 90s, while the rest of the area will be in the mid to upper 90s. This should also limit our Max Apt T or heat index across these areas. Due to this, we have left out many of our southeast Arkansas counties from the Heat Advisory for today with the exception of Miller and Little River. There is some potential that we will see some Excessive Heat Warning criteria being met at times today, but it seemed spotty enough to keep the Heat Advisory going and not upgrade for today. Late afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible across portions of the area thanks to the stalled out frontal boundary. Similar to today, this should act as a starting point for convection later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. The location may differ some, with storms possible into some of our east Texas counties. The potential for these storms is another reason I have elected not to upgrade the Heat Advisory as these could limit how "hot" we get. Hopefully we are able to manage to get some precipitation today as any convection for the rest of the week will generally only be from sea-breeze convection along our southern zones. Tuesday will remain hot again across the region, and there is some potential that areas not in the Heat Advisory today will need to be included on Tuesday, however, right now to avoid confusion, have left it as is and will expand if needs be tonight. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Here is how the rest of the week is expected to pan out. Models are in decent agreement that the center of the upper-level ridge will slowly shift to the east through the week. So, moral of the story is, this week is going to be hot with heat products likely to be in place through much of the week. By Friday, the center of the ridge should be more centered over the southeast CONUS, with what is now Hurricane Beryl reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Current track has the center of Beryl going right through the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday evening. Where it tracks from there is still up in the air, so continue to follow the forecast for the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. Precipitation will be limited through much of the long term period. The only exception will be from anything that can develop from diurnal heating and then the sea-breeze convection across our far southern zones. Right now it appears that our southern zones will have the best potential for any precip on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, as the center of the ridge is well east of our area, this could allow for more widespread convection across the region as a frontal boundary will push into the northern portions of our area, leading to a more unsettled period into next weekend. This could also lead to a brief break in the hot temperatures for next weekend. /33/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms have recently started to form in a convergence zone running from north to south in East TX, mainly along and south of I-20. Expect the coverage of at least widely scattered showers and storms to increase over central and western zones through the afternoon, potentially impacting GGG, TYR, SHV, TXK, and LFK air spaces. Those latter areas have VCTS in the TAFs through later this afternoon or early evening, although TEMPO groups were included in GGG and LFK for early through mid afternoon where potential for some impact is greater. In general, expect storms to produce brief gusty and erratic winds around or near their locations, although the potential for any severe storms is quite low. Otherwise, ceilings will remain MVFR for another hour or two in portions of the Arklamiss and could potentially drop down that low in the middle of a thunderstorm through the afternoon, but in general cu ceilings should range from 3 to 6 kft. Expect convection to quickly dwindle this evening with skies gradually clearing aside from residual high cirrus. Very isolated patches of sub VFR visibilities or ceilings are possible around and shortly after daybreak tomorrow, although the potential for impacting any TAF site right now is too low to include mention in the product. Winds at the surface will be veering to the south tomorrow morning with convective coverage likely very isolated tomorrow. /50/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 97 79 100 81 / 30 10 0 0 MLU 95 72 98 77 / 20 10 0 0 DEQ 93 72 96 75 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 96 75 99 79 / 20 10 0 0 ELD 93 69 97 75 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 98 78 99 79 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 97 77 99 78 / 30 10 10 0 LFK 96 77 98 77 / 50 20 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059-070. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...50